Composite Risk Analysis of Strong Wind and Rainstorm Based on Vine Copula
The composite distribution model of strong wind and rainstorm based on D-Vine Copula function was constructed in this study,and the measured data of Beijing Ming Tombs Reservoir were used for sensitive analysis and risk assessment.The re-sults show that the sensitivities of the joint distribution to precipitation,precipitation intensity,wind speed and temperature were different.Based on the results of sensitivity analysis,the value of joint distribution increased and the occurrence distribution de-creased with the increase of the probability distribution of precipitation intensity and wind speed,and the maximum joint risk rate was 24.5％.With the increase of the probability distribution of precipitation intensity and precipitation,the joint distribution in-creased and the occurrence distribution decreased,and the maximum joint risk rate was 18.1％.Vine Copula could reflect the cor-relation among hydro-meteorological factors.The probability distribution and combined risk rates of precipitation intensity and wind speed,as well as those of precipitation and intensity,showed positive correlations with the joint distribution when meteoro-logical disasters occurred.This study could provide theoretical and methodological support for the control of the combined risk of strong wind and heavy rain.
Vine Copulahydrometeorologyrisk analysissensitivitymultifactor joint distribution
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
