Study on Non-stationary Design Floods Based on GAMLSS:A Case Study of Longtanzhai Hydrological Station in the Panlong River,Yunnan
Owing to the climate change and human activities,it is important to use non-stationary methods for design flood calcu-lation.Taking Longtanzhai hydrological station on the Panlong River in Yunnan Province as a case,using the observed,simulated,and predicted precipitation and flood datasets based on the GAMLSS model and Equal Reliability method,the stationary and non-stationary design floods were calculated.The results show that:(1)the non-stationary probability models with precipitation as the covariate are better than the non-stationary probability models with time as the covariate and the stationary probability model.The precipitation-covariate models can both simulate the trend and fluctuation of floods.(2)The stationary design flood(269-423 m3/s)is generally greater than the non-stationary one(182-432 m3/s)at Longtanzhai hydrological station.(3)It is more reasonable to use precipitation as a covariate for the study case.The results could provide the references for flood management as well as the design of water conservation projects.
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