Attribution Analysis of Runoff Changes in Luo River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis
This study aims to investigate the primary factors driving the changes in runoff within the Luo River Basin.Using hy-drological,meteorological,and underlying surface data from 1961 to 2020,the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological ele-ments were analyzed in the study area.Employing the complementary relationship method based on the Budyko hypothesis,the im-pacts of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration,and human-induced alterations to the underlying surfaces on variations in runoff were quantitatively assessed.The analysis reveals that the main influences on runoff changes in different regions of the upper,middle,and lower reaches of the Luo River Basin.The results show that:(1)there is a significant decreasing trend in runoff from 1961 to 2020,with a notable inflection point in 1986.While the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration show slight re-ductions,there is a marked increase in temperature.Moreover,vegetative coverage in the basin has been steadily increasing since 1980 with varying degrees of land use changes.(2)The contributions of changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration to the reduction in runoff are found to be 25.4％and-13.9％,respectively.Changes in the underlying surfaces account for 88.5％of the reduced runoff.(3)Spatially,vegetation alterations are identified as the key factor contributing to runoff reduction in the up-stream and middle reaches of the basin,while water conservancy projects and land use changes are identified as the primary fac-tors leading to a marked decrease in runoff in the downstream area.The research could provide insights for understanding runoff changes and informing the development and utilization of water resources in the Luo River Basin.
runoff changeBudyko hypothesisattribution analysisLuo River Basin
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