Research on Flood Prediction in Mountainous County:A Case Study of Yangshuo County
The Flood in mountainous county area is a critical challenge within China's flood control and disaster management sys-tem.Aiming at improving flood prediction accuracy,this study selected Yangshuo County in Guilin as a case and developed a hydrological-hydraulic coupled model for the Tianjia River Watershed by HEC-HMS and InfoWorks ICM platforms.By refining and testing the model with floods from 2017 to 2022,12 scenarios of different flood return period combinations based on flood peak encounters of Tianjia River and Li Rivers were predicted.Statistics analysis were conducted on the area of submerged culti-vated land,the number of villages,the submerged area of the old town and the new town under each scenario.The findings indi-cate:(1)The flooding along the Yulong River banks is influenced prominently by upstream torrential floods.When the flood re-turn period in the Tianjia River Basin(TTJH)reaches 50 a,the submerged farmland area will exceed 8.15 km2,affecting more than 27 villages along the way.(2)The old town is mainly affected by the floods from the Li River.When Li River flood return period TLJ=20 a,the water level of the Li River overflows the embankments,and The West Street will be under water with depth of 1-2 m.(3)The new town district demonstrates heightened sensitivity to floods from both the Tianjia River Basin and the Li River.When the flood level exceeds either TTJH=10 a and TLJ=20 a or TTJH=20 a and TLJ=10 a,the new town area will suffer serious flood disasters.The research results can provide references for flood prediction in mountainous county.
mountainous countyflood predictionhydrologic-hydrodynamic coupled modelHEC-HMS modelInfoWorks ICM model
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