Analysis of Future Meteorological Drought Characteristics in the Weihe River Basin Based on GCMs
The study of future meteorological drought evolution in the basin is of great significance in its drought prevention,miti-gation and rational allocation of water resources.In this paper,considering multiple uncertainties affecting the future meteorological drought in the Weihe River Basin,based on the precipitation change rates of global climate models(GCMs)under two representa-tive concentration paths(RCP4.5,RCP8.5),the first five and last five GCMs were selected to couple into two new models,A and B,corresponding to the wet scenario and dry scenario with larger precipitation increases and decreases.Standard precipitation indi-ces(SPI)was calculated to predict future meteorological drought change characteristics.The results show:(1)the overall trend of future drought in the basin is decreasing,with a higher probability of abrupt changes around 2037,2043,2044,and 2050.Except for the increase of drought due to the decrease of precipitation under the RCP4.5 emission scenario,the drought in all regions will decrease in all other cases;(2)the longest duration of drought is 7-10 months,concentrated in September to June of the fol-lowing year;(3)the probability of no significant drought and mild drought in the whole basin in the future is higher,and the oc-currence of occasional severe drought and exceptional drought cannot be excluded.The results could provide references for water resources management under different scenarios in arid and semi-arid regions.
the Weihe River Basinmeteorological droughtprecipitationGCMSPI indexspatial-temporal change
万方数据
维普
