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1961-2020年黄河源区降水时空变化特征研究

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基于1961-2020年黄河源区16个雨量站点的逐日降水资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall(MK)检验、滑动t检验、Pettitt检验、小波分析、经验正交分解(EOF)方法对黄河源区年降水、季节降水、汛期降水的变化趋势及时空分布特征进行分析.结果表明:(1)黄河源区年降水以10.0 mm/10a的趋势显著增加;除冬季呈不明显的减少趋势外,春季、夏季、秋季和汛期降水同样呈增加趋势.(2)黄河源区降水除春季无明显突变外,全年、夏季、秋季、冬季和汛期的对应突变年份分别为2015年、1998年、2018年、2016年和2019年.(3)黄河源区年降水存在3~7 a、6~12 a、9~13 a和16~24 a的变化周期,第一、第二主周期为19 a和11 a,两种主周期都经历了 3次"丰-枯"变化;年降水存在2种模态,4种降水表现类型,2种模态的年份数为35 a和13 a.研究成果可为黄河源区防汛抗旱及上游水库群水资源调度提供参考.
Research on the Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in the Source Region of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020
Based on the daily precipitation data of 16 rainfall stations in the source region of the Yellow River from 1961 to 2020,the linear trend method,Mann-Kendall(MK)test,sliding t test,Pettitt test,wavelet analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Func-tion(EOF)method were used to analyze the variation trend and spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of annual precipi-tation,seasonal precipitation and flood season precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.The results show:(1)The an-nual precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River increases significantly with a trend of 10.0 mm/10 a.In addition to the insignificant decreasing trend in winter,the precipitation in spring,summer,autumn and flood season also shows an increasing trend.(2)Except for no obvious abrupt change in spring,the corresponding abrupt change years in the whole year,summer,au-tumn,winter and flood season are 2015,1998,2018,2016 and 2019,respectively.(3)The annual precipitation in the source re-gion of the Yellow River has 3-7 a,6-12 a,9-13 a and 16-24 a change cycles.The first and second main cycles are 19 a and 11a,and the two main cycles have experienced three'high-low'changes;There are two modes of annual precipitation,four types of precipitation performance,and the annual number of the two modes is 35 a and 13 a.The results can provide references for flood control and drought relief in the source region of the Yellow River and water resources scheduling of upstream reservoirs.

Mann-Kendall testspatial and temporal distributionsource region of the Yellow Riverwavelet analysisEmpirical Orthogonal Function

严昌盛、王鹏、靳莉君、刘静、轩党委、张荣刚

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黄河水利委员会水文局,河南郑州 450004

Mann-Kendall检验 时空分布 黄河源区 小波分析 经验正交分解

2024

水文
水利部水文局 水利部水利信息中心

水文

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.742
ISSN:1000-0852
年,卷(期):2024.44(5)