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基于机动车增长影响的公路客运量预测研究

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公路客运量是公路网规划中分析区域交通运输需求常用的指标,规划中采用的模型大多基于经济、人口等单项指标进行推测,较少考虑近年来机动车迅速增长对公路客运市场的冲击,因此提出一种基于机动车增长影响的公路客运量预测方法,通过分析相关影响因素,利用山西省历史数据建立模型,并利用模型预测分析发展趋势.
Prediction of Highway Passenger Traffic Based on Impacts of Vehicle Growth
Highway passenger traffic is a commonly used indicator for analyzing regional transporting demands in highway network planning.Most of the prediction models used in the planning are based on a single indicator,such as economy or population,with less consideration given to the impact of the rapid growth of vehicles on the highway passenger traffic market in recent years.According to the impact brought by vehicle growth,this paper proposes a prediction method for highway passenger traffic,and establishes a model by analyzing the relevant influencing factors,using historical data from Shanxi Province,to predict and analyze the development trend.

highway passenger trafficcivilian vehicle ownershippassenger traffic

薛勇

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山西省交通规划勘察设计院有限公司,山西 太原 030032

公路客运量 民用汽车拥有量 旅客出行量

2024

山西交通科技
山西交通科技信息中心站

山西交通科技

影响因子:0.381
ISSN:1006-3528
年,卷(期):2024.(2)