土地利用和覆盖变化(land use and cover change,LUCC)是影响陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要因素.本研究采用重庆市土地利用栅格数据、驱动因素栅格数据和破密度数据,耦合PLUS模型和InVEST模型,模拟2030年重庆市在自然发展(natural deuelopment,ND)、生态保护(ecological protection,EP)、耕地保护(farmland protection,FP)情景下的土地利用覆盖变化;评估重庆市2000-2030年土地利用变化带来的碳储量效应.研究表明:2000-2020年,重庆市约有20.92％的土地利用发生了变化;有林地和建设用地是主要的转入者;重庆市"两群"地区碳储量较高,"一区"地区碳储量较低;2010-2020年林地面积扩张和林地质量提升导致碳储量显著上升.3种模拟情景下,2030年重庆市有林地、建筑用地覆被和总碳储量都有增长,但增长水平低于2010-2020年;生态保护情景明显提高了林地面积和质量,碳储量增加最多;耕地保护情景提高了耕地面积,有效防止了耕地流失,但导致了林地面积减少,碳储量增加最少;不同情境下,重庆市2020-2030碳固持的碳市场交易价值与碳排放社会成本存在显著差异,需配套增加碳交易的财政补助.以重庆市为例,将林地细分为3类林业用地,评估林地质量提升导致的碳储量变化,能更加准确地反映重庆市碳储量变化.该研究有助于为城市土地利用结构优化提供理论依据,促进双碳战略实现.
Spatiotemporal Variation and Scenario Prediction of Carbon Storage in Chongqing Based on the PLUS and In VEST Model
Land use and cover change(LUCC)are crucial factors influencing changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.This study utilized Chongqing's land-use raster data,driving factor grid data,and carbon density data and with the help of the PLUS model and In VEST model analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use types and carbon storage in Chongqing from 2000 to 2030.The results show that between 2000 and 2020,approximately 20.92％of the Chongqing's land use area underwent changes.Woodland and built-up areas were the main recipients of these changes.Carbon storage was high in the"two-wings"regions of Chongqing,while it was low in the"one-circuit"region.From 2010 to 2020,the expansion of woodland and its internal changes drove a significant increase in carbon storage.Under three simulated scenarios,by 2030,Chongqing will experience a significant increase in woodland areas,built-up areas,and total carbon storage.However,the growth rate was lower than that observed from 2010 to 2020.The ecological protection scenario significantly increases total carbon storage,while ihe crop-land protection scenario effectively prevents cropland loss.In different scenarios,there is a significant difference in the carbon mar-ket transaction value and the social cost of carbon emissions for Chongqing from 2020 to 2030.It is necessary to provide financial subsidies to support carbon trading.Taking Chongqing as an example,the study subdivided woodland into three subtypes,evaluat-ing the changes in carbon storage driven by internal transitions in forests more accurately.This study contributes to providing a the-oretical basis for optimizing urban land-use structures and promoting the realization of dual carbon strategies.
land use changecarbon storagemulti scenario predictiondriving factor
万方数据
维普
