Influencing Factors and Risk Prediction Model Construction of Recurrence and Metasta-sis in HER2 Negative Breast Cancer Patients Underwent Chemotherapy
Objective To explore the factors influencing the recurrence and metastasis of breast cancer patients with negative human epidermal growth factor receptor-2(HER2)after chemotherapy,and to establish a risk prediction model.Methods The medical records and follow-up data of 180 HER2 negative breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy were retrospectively analyzed.According to the recurrence and metastasis within 2 years,the patients were divided into the recurrence and metastasis group(35 cases)and the non recurrence and metastasis group(145 cases).Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of recurrence and metastasis in HER2 negative breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.The risk prediction model was constructed based on the regression results,and the consistency index(C-index)was calculated to test the accuracy of the model.The ROC of the subjects was drawn,and the area under the curve(AUC)was used to test the predictive value of the risk prediction model for the recurrence and metastasis of HER2 negative breast cancer patients underwent chemother-apy.Results There was a statistically significant difference in menstrual status,clinical staging,p53 protein,Ki-67,and VEGF between the recurrence and non recurrence metastasis groups(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that menstrual sta-tus,clinical stage,p53 protein,Ki-67,VEGF were the influencing factors for recurrence and metastasis of HER2 negative breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy(P＜0.05).Based on the above factors,a risk prediction model was constructed,and the results showed that the calibration curve of the column chart model was similar to the Y=X straight line.The model had good cal-ibration,with a C-index value of 0.844,indicating that the model had good discrimination.The ROC curve was drawn and it was found that the AUC of HER2 negative breast cancer patients with chemotherapy predicted by the nomogram risk prediction model was 0.844.Conclusion Menstrual status,clinical stage,p53 protein,Ki-67,VEGF are the influencing factors of recurrence and metastasis in HER2 negative breast cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy.The risk prediction model based on the above influ-encing factors can effectively evaluate the recurrence and metastasis of patients.
Breast cancerHuman epidermal growth factor receptor-2Recurrence and metastasisInfluencing factorsRisk prediction model
万方数据
维普
