Establishment and Value of Risk Prediction Model for Postoperative Recurrence of Breast Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Features and Ultrasound Signs
Objective To explore the influencing factors of postoperative recurrence in breast cancer patients and estab-lish a risk prediction model for postoperative recurrence in breast cancer patients.Methods The clinical data of 800 patients with breast cancer were retrospectively analyzed.According to the postoperative recurrence,they were divided into recurrent group and non recurrent group.The clinical data and ultrasonic signs of patients in the recurrent group and non recurrent group were compared.The risk factors of postoperative recurrence were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression model.According to the risk factors,R(R3.5.3)software was used to establish a nomogram risk early warning model and verify the predictive efficacy of the nomogram model.Results Among 800 cases of breast cancer,35 cases recurred after operation,765 cases did not recur,and the postoperative recurrence rate was 4.38%(35/800).The age,residence,BMI,education level,menstruation,operation mode,tumor family history,hypertension,diabetes,tumor morphology,internal echo,posterior echo,postoperative radiotherapy,postopera-tive chemotherapy,postoperative endocrine therapy and other data of patients in the recurrence group and the non recurrence group were compared,and there was no statistically significant difference(P＞0.05),while the tumor stage,tumor diameter,margin,as-pect ratio,internal calcification,number of axillary lymph node metastasis and other data were compared,and there was statistical-ly significant difference(P＜0.05);Multivariate results showed that tumor stage Ⅲ,tumor diameter≥3 cm,blurred margin,as-pect ratio＞1,internal calcification,axillary lymph node metastasis≥4 were risk factors for postoperative recurrence of breast cancer(P＜0.05).The consistency index of the column chart model constructed based on risk factors was0.788,the calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve,and the AUC value was 0.766.Conclusion Stage Ⅲ,tumor diameter≥3 cm,blurry margin,aspect ratio＞1,internal calcification and axillary lymph node metastasis≥4 are independent risk factors for postoperative recurrence of breast cancer.The prediction model based on the above factors has good risk prediction value.
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