Examining the Chinese Refined Oil Market in 2023 and Forecasting Supply and Demand in 2024
This paper analyzes and assesses the evolution of the Chinese refined oil market in 2023 and forecasts the market for refined oil in 2024 by integrating a number of domestic economic development variables.The paper claims that in 2023,China's demand for refined oil products recovered further,with notable increases in the consumption of gasoline and aviation kerosene—two products with exceptional consumption qualities—and a moderate increase in the consumption of diesel due to the country's faster-than-expected economic growth.Consequently,the predicted refined oil consumption in China for that year is 3.66×108 t,representing a 12.2%year-over-year increase and another double-digit gain since 2011.The quantity of inexpensive resources is reduced and the cost of blended oil's raw materials rises as a result of the higher consumption tax on refined oil products.The large rise in export quotas relieves the pressure of having too many domestic resources.In 2024,as long as consumption growth continues to contribute to economic growth,jet fuel consumption will rise quickly;the electrification of cars will cause the growth rate of gasoline consumption to significantly slow down;dual control over energy consumption will gradually transition to dual control over carbon emissions;and diesel consumption is predicted to go back down the downward channel.China's refined oil market is predicted to continue showing a positive trend of rising supply and demand in 2024,with consumption estimated to be 3.69×108 t,up 0.8%from 2023.Due to the continuous growth in independent refineries'refined oil resources,the domestic refined oil surplus is anticipated to exceed 5 000×104 t,creating fierce competition within the domestic market.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
