Study on the Relationship between Temperature and Natural Gas Consumption Based on State-Space Model
Influencing mechanism of the natural gas consumption is crucial for ensuring accurate supply and operational scheduling during the heating season.However,existing data-driven research methods often suffer from weak interpretability,making it difficult to profoundly elucidate the underlying mechanisms driving changes in natural gas consumption during the heating season.Based on dynamic system theory,this study conceptualizes the process of natural gas consumption changes as a dynamic system,where influencing factors are treated as state variables within the system,and analyzes the physical significance of these state variables by the state-space model constructed using system identification methods.Taking the heating season in northern regions as an example,it examine the impact of temperature changes on natural gas consumption using the model,reveals the dynamic processes of natural gas consumption by analyzing the meanings of internal parameters within the model in order to provide interpretability by exploring causal relationships between state variables and the system from a mechanistic perspective.The proposed model offers a novel systemic perspective for understanding and analyzing natural gas consumption behavior,elucidating its dynamic patterns,which highlights the importance of temperature lag effects and cumulative consumption demand in forecasting natural gas consumption so as to provide a new methodological approach for analyzing energy consumption influencing factors.
Natural gas consumptionInfluencing factorsDynamic system theorySystem identification theoryState-space modelLag effect
万方数据
维普
