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建筑运行阶段碳排放因素分解及情景预测

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建筑的长生命周期特点使得其运行阶段的碳排放量占全生命周期总排放量的一半以上。基于2000-2021年的数据,构建STIRPAT模型,分析了公共建筑、城镇居住建筑及农村居住建筑运行阶段碳排放的主要影响因素,同时基于多情景分析,预测了 2022-2030年各类建筑的运行阶段的碳排放趋势。研究发现:人口数量是各类建筑运行阶段碳排放最主要的驱动因素,其影响系数分别为3。263,2。284和2。660;能源结构在公共建筑和农村居住建筑中能起到显著的抑制作用,其影响系数分别为1。465和1。235;建筑面积、居民可支配收入、第三产业增值及制冷度日数均属于主要驱动因素。最后,基于定性与定量的分析,提出了未来碳减排的对策与建议。
The Influencing Factors Analysis and Situation Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the Operation Stage of Buildings
The long life cycle of the building itself determines that the carbon emissions in the operation stage account for more than half of the carbon emissions of the whole process.Using the data from 2000 to 2021,the STAPAT model was constructed to analyze the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in the operation stage of public buildings,urban residential buildings and rural residential buildings.This paper concluded that population was the most important driving factor affecting the carbon emissions of the operation of the three major building types,with impact factors of 3.263,2.284 and 2.660,respectively,and energy structure was an important inhibitor of public buildings and rural residential buildings.The impact factors were 1.465 and 1.235,respectively,followed by construction area,disposable income of residents,the added value of the tertiary industry and the number of cooling degree days.Based on qualitative and quantitative analysis,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for future carbon emission reduction.

carbon emission accountingSTIRPAT modelscenario analysispublic buildingsresidential buildings

孙艳丽、郑凌慧、路林翰

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沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳 110168

碳排放核算 STIRPAT模型 情景分析 公共建筑 居住建筑

辽宁省社会科学基金一般项目

L18BJY030

2024

沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版)
沈阳建筑大学

沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.784
ISSN:1673-1387
年,卷(期):2024.26(4)