Carbon Emission Estimation and Scenario Prediction of Regional Transportation lndustry:Taking Liaoning Province as an Example
In order to discuss the change trend of carbon emissions in regional transport industry,Liaoning Province was selected as the research object,and STIRPAT model was adopted to expand the influencing factors of carbon emissions in regional transport industry.Six driving factors,including per capita GDP,urbanization rate,passenger and freight turnover,private car ownership,highway mileage of grade 2 and above,and energy consumption per unit GDP,were selected for quantitative analysis.The results show that each 1％increase in per capita GDP,urbanization rate,passenger and freight turnover,private car ownership,and highway mileage of grade 2 and above will increase carbon emissions by 0.066％,0.238％,0.084％,0.024％and 0.238％,respectively.Each 1％change in energy consumption per unit of GDP causes a 0.093％change in carbon emissions.According to the research results,eight scenarios are set up to predict the future carbon emissions of the transportation industry in Liaoning Province and carbon emission reduction recommendations are proposed.
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