Research on Prediction of Traffic Accidents on Mountainous Highways Based on Fuzzy Logic
To solve the fuzziness between variables and variable relationships in accident prediction,fuzzy logic is introduced to establish a fuzzy logic-based traffic accident prediction model for mountain-ous highways.The data of road geometric alignment and traffic accidents of a mountainous highway in Yunnan Province are collected,and the data are also classified according to whether the road is located on a shaded side of the mountain to propose significant variables that can characterize the degree of in-fluence of special nodes and bad weather.The variables are divided into five fuzzy sets,and triangular and trapezoidal affiliation functions are used to fuzzify the variables,and the variables are trained to obtain 693 effective fuzzy control rules.Then the model is reasoned according to the fuzzy inference mechanism,and the accurate accident prediction results are obtained after anti-fuzzification.The re-sults show that the prediction accuracy,average absolute error and average absolute percentage error of the model are 90.2%,0.88 times/km and 11%,respectively,and the prediction accuracy is high and applicable to the same type of mountain highway.Therefore,the use of fuzzy logic to predict acci-dents on mountainous highways has a certain degree of feasibility and portability.
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