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基于Daniel及Mann-kendall检验的辽西北地区降雨量趋势分析

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为探索辽西北地区降雨特征及其发生规律,采用辽西北地区5个市21个气象站1952~2006年间的气象资料,应用Daniel及Mann-Kendall检验方法对辽西北地区降雨量的年际变化及季节变化趋势进行分析,并应用Mann-Kendall对降雨量进行突变性检验.分析结果表明:虽然两种方法是从不同时间段对辽西北地区降雨量进行检验,但二者结果基本吻合,整体上辽西北地区降雨量呈下降趋势,且变化比较稳定;辽西北地区虽个别城市在一些年份降雨出现了上升趋势,但整体上还是下降趋势较显著,这与趋势分析结果相似,也与实际情况相符.
Rainfall Trend Analysis of the Northwest Liaoning Province Based on Daniel and Mann-Kendall Test
For exploring the rainfall characteristics and occurrence regularity of the northwest region of Liaoning,annual trends of rainfall in the northwest of Liaoning Province was analysed using the Daniel and Mann-Kendall statistic test,according to daily rainfall data from 21 meteorological stations for five cities in the northwest of Liaoning Province from 1952 to 2006,and the significance test of rainfall was conducted based on Mann-Kendall method.The analysis results showed that the prediction of two methods were basically identical,although two methods tested on rainfall from different time periods in northwestern areas,and the precipitation patterns presented a descending trend with gentle change on the whole.Analysis from mutation analysis gave the similar result as trend analysis did,namely descending trend in rainfall appeared on the whole while rising rainfall trend in particular cities on individual year.The prediction results were close to the actual situation.

rainfallDaniel and Mann-Kendall statistic testtrend analysismutation test

刘娟、陈涛涛、迟道才

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沈阳农业大学水利学院,沈阳110161

辽宁石油化工大学石油天然气工程学院,辽宁抚顺113001

降雨量 Daniel及Mann-Kendall检验法 趋势分析 突变检验

国家公益性行业(农业)科研专项项目

201303125

2014

沈阳农业大学学报
沈阳农业大学

沈阳农业大学学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.667
ISSN:1000-1700
年,卷(期):2014.45(5)
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