Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for atopic dermatitis in the elderly
Objective To explore the risk factors related to atopic dermatitis(AD)in the elderly,establishing a prediction model to enhance understanding of the etiology,and provide a reference for the diagnosis of AD in the elderly.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 407 elderly patients possiblly diagnosed with AD,who were treated at department of dermatology,the second affifiliated hospital of chengdu medical college from January 2016 to January 2024.Detailed information regarding patients'home habits and external environment was collected via a questionnaire during their initial visit.Results A total of 321 patients were enrolled in this study,and were divided into AD group(224)and non-AD group(97)according to confirmed diagnosis.Univariate analysis was used to identify factors associated with AD in the elderly,followed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis to determine independent risk factors.The nomogram prediction model was established using R software,and the model's discriminatory ability and calibration were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,calibration curve,and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test.Results The univariate analysis revealed that five factors-frequency of changing bed linens and pillowcases within 2 weeks,bathing frequency,PM 2.5 levels,temperature,and humidity-demonstrated statistically significant differences between the AD and non-AD groups(P＜0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that failing to change bed linens and pillowcases within a two-week period,elevated PM 2.5 levels,low humidity,and low temperature were independent risk factors for AD in the elderly(P＜0.05).The ROC curve and the calibration curve of the prediction model showed an AUC/C-index of 0.8576(95％CI:0.812-0.9 032),with good discriminatory ability.The calibration curve showed the mean absolute error of 0.021 between the predicted and actual probability.The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P-value of 0.4474(＞0.05),indicating good consistency.Conclusion Failing to change bed linens and pillowcases within a two-week period,elevated PM 2.5 levels,low humidity,and low temperature were independent risk factors for AD in the elderly.The nomogram prediction model based on these risk factors demonstrated good discriminatory ability,consistency,and predictive performance.
Dermatitis,atopicElderlyHome habitsExternal environmentRisk factorsPrediction model
万方数据
维普
