Objective To analyze the risk factors for epileptic seizures in children after febrile seizures and to develop an individual nomograph model to predict epileptic seizures.Methods A total of 296 children with febrile seizures in the Department of Pediatrics,Affiliated Hospital of Yangzhou University from September 2019 to October 2022 were selected as study subjects,the patients were divided into epileptic group(54 cases)and nonepileptic group(242 cases)accord-ing to whether they had epileptic seizure after the day of seizure.The factors influencing epileptic seizures in children af-ter febrile seizure were determined by single-factor and multiple-factor logistic regression analyses,a nomogram model was constructed using the R language software package to predict seizures after febrile seizure in children,and a calibration curve and ROC curve were drawn to evaluate the predictive ability of the nomogram model.Results The proportions of patients with the age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year,number of first seizures ≥ 4 times,complex febrile seizures,abnormal electroencephalogram(EEG)and family history of epilepsy in the epileptic group were significantly higher than those in the nonepileptic group(P＜0.05).Age of first seizure between 3 months and 1 year(OR=3.425,P＜0.05),number of first seizures ≥ 4 times(OR=2.974,P＜0.05),complex febrile seizures(OR=4.621,P＜0.05),abnormal EEG(OR=2.836,P＜0.05)and family history of epilepsy(OR=5.572,P＜0.05)were all inde-pendent risk factors for epileptic seizure after febrile seizure in children.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,and the predictive value of the nomogram model for predicting epileptic seizures after febrile seizure in children was basically in agreement with the actual value.The area under the ROC curve was 0.896(95％CI:0.851-0.940),indicating moderate predictive efficiency.Conclusion The prediction model based on multifactor logistic regression a-nalysis in this study can better predict seizures after childhood febrile seizures,and has some guidance on prevention and treatment of seizures.
关键词
热性惊厥/儿童/癫痫发作/危险因素/列线图预测模型
Key words
Febrile seizure/Children/Epilepsy/Risk factors/Nomogram prediction model
维普
万方数据