中华全科医学2024,Vol.22Issue(3) :384-388.DOI:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003408

脓毒症患者肠内喂养不耐受风险预测模型构建

Development of a prediction model for enteral feeding intolerance in patients with sepsis

杨羚 张莉 彭虎 辜新 于湘友
中华全科医学2024,Vol.22Issue(3) :384-388.DOI:10.16766/j.cnki.issn.1674-4152.003408

脓毒症患者肠内喂养不耐受风险预测模型构建

Development of a prediction model for enteral feeding intolerance in patients with sepsis

杨羚 1张莉 2彭虎 3辜新 3于湘友4
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 新疆医科大学护理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054;新疆医科大学第一附属医院心血管中心重症监护室,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 2. 新疆医科大学护理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054;新疆医科大学第一附属医院护理部
  • 3. 新疆医科大学护理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 4. 新疆医科大学第一附属医院重症医学中心
  • 折叠

摘要

目的 探讨脓毒症患者肠内喂养不耐受(EFI)的危险因素,了解脓毒症患者EFI的发生情况.构建脓毒症患者发生EFI的风险预测模型,便于高危人群的筛查,以防控EFI的发生.方法 采用方便抽样法选取2022年1月—2023年6月新疆某三级甲等医院重症医学科收治的行肠内营养治疗的脓毒症患者作为研究对象,以患者是否发生EFI分为喂养耐受组和喂养不耐受组,对患者的一般资料、临床资料、喂养不耐受相关资料进行单因素分析,应用LASSO回归解决各变量间的共线性问题,将LASSO回归分析结果中的变量纳入logistic回归分析,得出脓毒症患者发生EFI的危险因素,并基于此构建脓毒症患者EFI风险预测模型,绘制列线图、ROC曲线、决策曲线、校准曲线,对预测模型的诊断效能进行评价及验证.结果 共纳入199例行肠内营养治疗的脓毒症患者,其中不耐受组93例,耐受组106例,EFI发生率为46.7%.多因素分析显示序贯性器官功能衰竭(SOFA)评分、营养风险筛查2002(NRS-2002)评分、镇痛剂、ICU住院时间是脓毒症患者发生EFI的独立影响因素.ROC曲线分析显示,脓毒症患者发生EFI的曲线下面积为0.885(95%CI:0.833~0.933),最大约登指数为0.689,敏感度为0.849,特异度为0.839.结论 SOFA评分、NRS-2002评分、镇痛剂、ICU住院时间是脓毒症患者发生EFI的影响因素,基于此构建的风险预测模型,经验证后发现该模型可较准确地预测脓毒症患者发生EFI的风险,有助于临床医护人员对患者进行科学、个体化的肠内营养治疗.

Abstract

Objective To explore the risk factors of enteral feeding intolerance(EFI)in sepsis patients and to under-stand the occurrence of EFI in sepsis patients.To construct a risk prediction model for the occurrence of EFI in sepsis pa-tients to facilitate the screening of high-risk groups to prevent and control the occurrence of EFI.Methods Convenience sampling method was used to select sepsis patients admitted to the Department of Critical Care Medicine of a tertiary-level hospital in Xinjiang who underwent enteral nutrition therapy from January 2022 to June 2023 as study subjects and were divided into the feeding tolerance group and feeding intolerance group by whether or not EFI occurred in the patients,and a one-way analysis was carried out on the patients'general,clinical,and feeding intolerance-related data,and LASSO regression was applied to solve the covariance problem among variables,then the variables in the results of LASSO regres-sion analysis were included in logistic regression analysis to derive the risk factors for EFI in patients with sepsis,on the basis of which we constructed a prediction model for the risk of EFI in patients with sepsis,and plotted a Nomogram,ROC curve,decision curve analysis,and calibration curve to evaluate and validate the diagnostic efficacy of the predic-tion model.Results A total of 199 sepsis patients with enteral nutrition therapy were included,including 93 cases in the intolerant group and 106 cases in the tolerant group,and the incidence rate of EFI was 46.7%.Multifactorial analysis showed that sequential organ failure assessment(SOFA)score,nutritional risk screening(NRS-2002)score,analge-sics,and ICU length of stay were independent risk factors for the occurrence of EFI in patients with sepsis.The area un-der the ROC curve was 0.885(95%CI:0.833-0.933),and the maximal Youden index was 0.689,with a sensitivity of 0.849,and a specificity of 0.839.Conclusion SOFA score,NRS-2002 score,analgesics,and ICU length of stay are risk factors for EFI in septic patients.The risk prediction model constructed in this study based on this was validated and found to be a more accurate predictor of the risk of EFI in patients with sepsis,which can help clinical healthcare professionals provide scientific and individualized enteral nutrition therapy to patients.

关键词

脓毒症/肠内喂养不耐受/预测模型

Key words

Sepsis/Enteral feeding intolerance/Prediction model

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

国家自然科学基金(82160360)

吴阶平医学基金会临床科研专项(320.6750.2023-02-3)

出版年

2024
中华全科医学
中华预防医学会,安徽省全科医学会

中华全科医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.688
ISSN:1674-4152
参考文献量21
段落导航相关论文