首页|个体化预测支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎风险的列线图模型建立及验证

个体化预测支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎风险的列线图模型建立及验证

Establishment and validation of an individual nomogram model for predicting the risk of allergic rhinitis in children with bronchial asthma

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目的 分析支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎的影响因素,并构建个体化预测列线图模型.方法 选取2019年7月—2022年11月唐山市第三医院收治的358例支气管哮喘患儿为研究对象,采用单因素及多因素lo-gistic 回归分析研究影响支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎的危险因素;利用R软件构建列线图模型,并通过校准曲线验证列线图模型的一致性,最后通过受试者工作特征曲线的曲线下面积评估模型预测价值及区分度.结果 358例支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎者108例,发生率为30.17%;单因素分析结果显示,支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎组的家庭人员抽烟、早期使用抗生素、白介素-8(IL-8)、C反应蛋白(CRP)、白细胞计数(WBC)与未并发过敏性鼻炎组比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);早期使用抗生素、IL-8、CRP、WBC均为支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎的影响因素(P<0.05);列线图模型预测支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎的校准曲线斜率接近1,且Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验x2=3.107,P=0.927,一致性较好.结论 本研究基于早期使用抗生素、IL-8、CRP、WBC四种危险因素构建预测支气管哮喘患儿并发过敏性鼻炎风险的列线图模型,区分度及一致性相对较好,可为临床上制定针对性的干预措施提供参考.
Objective To analyze the influencing factors of children with bronchial asthma complicated with allergic rhi-nitis,and to build a personalized predictive nomogram model.Methods A total of 358 children with bronchial asthma admitted to Tangshan Third People's Hospital from July 2019 to November 2022 were collected as the research objects.The risk factors of allergic rhinitis in children with bronchial asthma were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression.R software was used to build a nomogram model,and the consistency of the nomogram model was verified by calibration curves.Finally,two groups of clinical volumes were collected to evaluate the predictive value and differentia-tion of the model through the area under the curve of the subject's working characteristic curve.Results One hundred ang eight of 358 children with bronchial asthma complicated with allergic rhinitis(30.17%);the results of the univariate analysis showed that there were obvious differences in smoking by family members,early use of antibiotics,interleukin-8(IL-8),C-reactive protein(CRP),white blood cell count(WBC)between the allergic rhinitis group and the nonaller-gic rhinitis group(P<0.05);that early use of antibiotics,IL-8,CRP,and WBC were influencing factors for children with bronchial asthma complicated with allergic rhinitis(P<0.05);the slope of the calibration curve of nomogram model for predicting children with bronchial asthma complicated with Allergic rhinitis was close to 1,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was x2=3.107,P=0.927,with good consistency.Conclusion This study constructs a nomogram model to predict the risk of allergic rhinitis in children with bronchial asthma based on the four risk factors of early use of antibiotics,IL-8,CRP,and WBC.It has relatively good differentiation and consistency and provides a reference for clin-ical intervention.

Bronchial asthmaChildrenAllergic rhinitisColumn chart model

商胜利、姚雅君、陈明、徐淑芳

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开滦总医院耳鼻咽喉头颈外科,河北唐山 063000

开滦总医院唐家庄医院五官科,河北唐山 063000

唐山市第三医院耳鼻咽喉科,河北唐山 063000

支气管哮喘 儿童 过敏性鼻炎 列线图模型

河北省中医药局科研项目

2022166

2024

中华全科医学
中华预防医学会,安徽省全科医学会

中华全科医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.688
ISSN:1674-4152
年,卷(期):2024.22(6)