目的 分析影响牙周病发病的危险因素,并构建Nomogram预测模型.方法 选取2018年4月-2021年11月于北京中医医院就诊的100例牙周组织病患者为研究对象,作为观察组,另取同期于该院接受健康体检人员100例为对照组.记录两组研究对象的基线资料,采用多因素logistic回归分析影响牙周组织病发病的危险因素并构建Nomogram预测模型,采用内部数据验证Nomogram模型临床效能.结果 两组在年龄、性别等一般资料的比较中,差异均无统计学意义(P＞0.05);与对照组相比,观察组刷牙时间较短,吸烟和不规范刷牙者较多,早晚刷牙和饭后漱口者较少,差异均有统计学意义(P＜0.05);刷牙时间的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.787,最佳截断值为2 min;刷牙时间(≤2 min)、吸烟(是)、不规范刷牙(是)、早晚刷牙(否)、饭后漱口(否)为牙周病患者发病的危险因素(P＜0.05);内部验证结果显示,Nomogram模型预测患者发病的风险C-index为0.733(95％CI:0.669～0.801);DCA结果显示,模型预测患者发病风险阈值＞0.07.结论 刷牙时间(≤2 min)、吸烟(是)、不规范刷牙(是)、早晚刷牙(否)、饭后漱口(否)为牙周病患者发病的危险因素,且本研究基于危险变量构建的预测模型可以对患者发病进行较好的预测.
Risk factors for onset of periodontal disease and construction of a predictive model for columnar maps
Objective To analyze the risk factors affecting periodontal disease onset and construction of a nomogram prediction model.Methods One hundred periodontal tissue disease patients who attended Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from April 2018 to November 2021 were selected as the research subjects,namely,the observation group,and another 100 patients undergoing health check-ups at the hospital during the same period were selected as the control group.The baseline data of the two groups were recorded.Multi-factor logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors influencing onset of periodontal tissue disease,and a nomogram prediction model was constructed.Internal data were employed to verify the clinical efficacy of the nomogram model.Results In the comparison of general information such as age and gender between the two groups,the differences were not statistically significant(P＞0.05).Compared with the control group,the observation group had shorter brushing time,more smokers and irregular brushes,fewer early and late brushes and fewer rinses after meals,all with statistically significant differences(P＜0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)for brushing time was 0.787,and the best cut-off value 2 minutes.The time spent brushing(≤2 min),smoking(yes),irregular brushing(yes),brushing early and late(no)and rinsing after meals(no)were risk factors for the development of periodontal disease(P＜0.05).The internal validation results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model for predicting the risk of developing periodontal disease in the patients was 0.733(95％CI:0.669-0.801).DCA results displayed that the model predicted a risk threshold of＞0.07 for patient morbidity.Conclusion Brushing time(≤2 min),smoking(yes),irregular brushing(yes),brushing early and late(no)and rinsing after meals(no)are risk factors for the development of periodontal disease in the patients,moreover,the prediction model constructed based on the risk variables in this study can better predict the patients'development of the disease.
periodontal diseasepathogenesisrisk factornomogram prediction model
万方数据
维普
