Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model in predicting the density of Aedes albopictus in Changsha City
Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)in forecasting the density of Aedes albopictus monitored by using three methods in Changsha City so as to predict the growth trend of the density.Methods We collected and sorted out the density data of Aedes albopictus monitored by mosquito trap lamp method(January 2007-July 2023),double layered mosquito net method and Bretto index method(January 2016-July 2023)in Changsha City,and then applied R 4.3.0 to constructing seasonal ARIMA models by using the monitoring data based on mosquito trap lamp method from January 2007 to December 2022 as well as double layered mosquito net method and Bretto index method from January 2016 to December 2022.A comparative evaluation was performed between the monitoring actual data and the predicted values based on the three methods from January to July 2023,and then the density in August-November,2023 was forecasted.Results The optimal models ARIMA(0,0,1)(2,1,2)12,ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 and ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,2)12 for monitoring the density of Aedes albopictus were constructed by using the three methods.The Akaike information criterion(AIC)and Bayesian information criterion(BIC)values of the model both reached the lowest levels,and they were well fitted with the previous density sequence.Box-Ljung test showed that the residual sequence was white noise(P＞0.05),which could be used for predicting the density of Aedes albopictus.The predictive average value of density of Aedes albopictus based on mosquito trap lamp method from August to November 2023 was 0.56 mosquito/lamp/night,and the predictive average values of the density based on mosquito net trap index and Bretto index from August to October 2023 were 1.67 mosquitoes/net/hour and 21.75 respectively,which were all higher than the average values of the density during the same period in 2022:0.43 mosquito/lamp/night,0.72 mosquito/net/hour and 3.67.Conclusion The optimal ARIMA models have good fitting effects on the density of Aedes albopictus monitored based on the three methods in Changsha City,and can be used for short-term prediction of Aedes albopictus density.The predictive density of Aedes albopictus in the second half of 2023 show an upward trend as compared with that in the same period in 2022.Hence more countermeasures should be taken to control the density of Aedes albopictus.
Aedes albopictusdensitymonitoringautoregressive integrated moving average modelforecast
万方数据
维普
