2018-2021年PM2.5与呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系分析
Relationship between PM2.5 and deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City,2018-2021
贾芯芮 1杨升美 2张晨光 2亢伟伟 2魏娜娜 2张雯宇 1李欢 1岳宣志 1武多多 3郭海明 4韩见弘 5范耀春6
作者信息
- 1. 内蒙古医科大学公共卫生学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010059
- 2. 内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010080
- 3. 内蒙古科技大学包头医学院公共卫生学院,内蒙古 包头 014040
- 4. 内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市气象局,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051
- 5. 内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市生态环境监测站,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010011
- 6. 内蒙古医科大学公共卫生学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010059;内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010080;内蒙古自治区个体化用药工程技术研究中心,内蒙古 通辽 028000
- 折叠
摘要
目的 探讨2018-2021年呼和浩特市PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡的影响.方法 收集2018-2021年呼和浩特市大气污染物、气象以及死因监测资料数据,采用广义相加模型,拟合单污染物模型和双污染物模型分析呼和浩特市PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系.结果 呼和浩特市大气PM2.5在滞后1日(lag1)时,对居民循环系统疾病总死亡数影响最为显著.PM2.5浓度每升高10 µg/m3,呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病死亡风险上升6.31％(95％CI:2.39％～10.24％).在＞65岁人群中,超额危险度(excess rish,ER)为7.79％(95％CI:2.90％～12.69％);在≤65岁人群中,滞后效应差异均无统计学意义(P＞0.05).男性人群中,lag2时对其循环系统疾病死亡影响最为显著,ER为7.43％(95％CI:1.61％～13.25％);在女性人群中,在滞后当日(lagO)时对其循环系统疾病死亡影响最为显著,ER为10.89％(95％CI:4.24％～17.55％).结论 2018-2021年呼和浩特市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统存在急性超额死亡风险,且存在滞后效应.PM2.5浓度升高可能导致呼和浩特市居民循环系统死亡风险增加,＞65岁人群可能为敏感人群.
Abstract
Objective To explore the impact of PM2.5 on deaths caused by circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City during 2018-2021.Methods The monitoring data about air pollutants,meteorology and death causes in Hohhot City from 2018 to 2021 were collected.The generalized additive model was used to fit single pollutant model and double pollutant model for analyzing the relationship between PM2.5 and deaths from circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City.Results The relationships between the total number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases and atmospheric PM2.5 among residents in Hohhot City were the strongest on lag 1 day.The death risk of circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City increased by 6.31％(95％CI:2.39％-10.24％)for per 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration.Among residents aged＞65 years,the excess risk(ER)was 7.79％(95％CI:2.90％-12.69％).No statistically significant difference was found in the lag effect among residents aged ≤65 years(P＞0.05).Among male residents,the effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on deaths due to circulatory system diseases was the strongest on lag 2 days,with the ER being 7.43％(95％CI:1.61％-13.25％).Among female residents,the effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on deaths due to circulatory system diseases was the strongest on lag 0 day,with the ER of 10.89％(95％CI:4.24％-17.55％).Conclusion Atmospheric PM2.5 exposure was associated with the risk of acute excess deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City during 2018-2021,with a lag effect.The increase of PM2.5 concentration may lead to an increased risk of deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City,and residents aged＞65 years may be the sensitive group.
关键词
空气污染/PM2.5/循环系统疾病/死亡/时间序列分析Key words
air pollution/fine particulate matter/circulatory system disease/death/time-series analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
全国空气污染(雾霾)对人群健康影响监测与防护项目(国卫办疾控函[2021]250号)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据