首页|2018-2021年PM2.5与呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系分析

2018-2021年PM2.5与呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系分析

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目的 探讨2018-2021年呼和浩特市PM2.5对居民循环系统疾病死亡的影响.方法 收集2018-2021年呼和浩特市大气污染物、气象以及死因监测资料数据,采用广义相加模型,拟合单污染物模型和双污染物模型分析呼和浩特市PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的关系.结果 呼和浩特市大气PM2.5在滞后1日(lag1)时,对居民循环系统疾病总死亡数影响最为显著.PM2.5浓度每升高10 µg/m3,呼和浩特市居民循环系统疾病死亡风险上升6.31%(95%CI:2.39%~10.24%).在>65岁人群中,超额危险度(excess rish,ER)为7.79%(95%CI:2.90%~12.69%);在≤65岁人群中,滞后效应差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05).男性人群中,lag2时对其循环系统疾病死亡影响最为显著,ER为7.43%(95%CI:1.61%~13.25%);在女性人群中,在滞后当日(lagO)时对其循环系统疾病死亡影响最为显著,ER为10.89%(95%CI:4.24%~17.55%).结论 2018-2021年呼和浩特市大气PM2.5对居民循环系统存在急性超额死亡风险,且存在滞后效应.PM2.5浓度升高可能导致呼和浩特市居民循环系统死亡风险增加,>65岁人群可能为敏感人群.
Relationship between PM2.5 and deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City,2018-2021
Objective To explore the impact of PM2.5 on deaths caused by circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City during 2018-2021.Methods The monitoring data about air pollutants,meteorology and death causes in Hohhot City from 2018 to 2021 were collected.The generalized additive model was used to fit single pollutant model and double pollutant model for analyzing the relationship between PM2.5 and deaths from circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City.Results The relationships between the total number of deaths due to circulatory system diseases and atmospheric PM2.5 among residents in Hohhot City were the strongest on lag 1 day.The death risk of circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City increased by 6.31%(95%CI:2.39%-10.24%)for per 10μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration.Among residents aged>65 years,the excess risk(ER)was 7.79%(95%CI:2.90%-12.69%).No statistically significant difference was found in the lag effect among residents aged ≤65 years(P>0.05).Among male residents,the effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on deaths due to circulatory system diseases was the strongest on lag 2 days,with the ER being 7.43%(95%CI:1.61%-13.25%).Among female residents,the effect of atmospheric PM2.5 on deaths due to circulatory system diseases was the strongest on lag 0 day,with the ER of 10.89%(95%CI:4.24%-17.55%).Conclusion Atmospheric PM2.5 exposure was associated with the risk of acute excess deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City during 2018-2021,with a lag effect.The increase of PM2.5 concentration may lead to an increased risk of deaths due to circulatory system diseases among residents in Hohhot City,and residents aged>65 years may be the sensitive group.

air pollutionfine particulate mattercirculatory system diseasedeathtime-series analysis

贾芯芮、杨升美、张晨光、亢伟伟、魏娜娜、张雯宇、李欢、岳宣志、武多多、郭海明、韩见弘、范耀春

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内蒙古医科大学公共卫生学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010059

内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010080

内蒙古科技大学包头医学院公共卫生学院,内蒙古 包头 014040

内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市气象局,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051

内蒙古自治区呼和浩特市生态环境监测站,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010011

内蒙古自治区个体化用药工程技术研究中心,内蒙古 通辽 028000

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空气污染 PM2.5 循环系统疾病 死亡 时间序列分析

全国空气污染(雾霾)对人群健康影响监测与防护项目

国卫办疾控函[2021]250号

2024

实用预防医学
中华预防医学会 湖南省预防医学会

实用预防医学

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.391
ISSN:1006-3110
年,卷(期):2024.31(6)