目的 分析1990-2019年中国女性高血糖相关卵巢癌的疾病负担及其变化趋势,并对2020-2029年情况做出相应预测.方法 利用全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,GBD 2019)公开的数据,从发病、死亡、伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted life years,DALY)等多个维度分析1990-2019年中国女性高血糖相关卵巢癌疾病负担及其变化情况,并与全球人群进行比较,预测2020-2029年国内高血糖相关卵巢癌的发病与死亡趋势.结果 2019年中国人群高血糖相关卵巢癌的发病数、死亡数、DALY数分别为2 751、1 758、44 615人年,较1990年分别增长352.5％、356.6％、329.0％,增幅均高于全球水平(189.7％、184.2％及180.9％);2019年的标化发病率、死亡率、DALY率分别为0.270/10 万、0.164/10 万、4.103/10 万,平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)分别为 2.3％、2.0％、2.0％,均高于全球平均水平(1.3％、1.1％及1.1％).高血糖相关卵巢癌的疾病负担在25～44岁间均处于相对较低水平,45岁后开始快速上升,整体在55～74岁间达到高峰.神经网络模型预测显示,该病的发病与死亡在下一个10年周期仍处于高位上升趋势.结论 1990-2019年中国女性高血糖相关卵巢癌导致的疾病负担占全球人群相应比重较大,且标化发病率、死亡率、DALY率逐年上升.应持续关注高血糖等代谢因素在卵巢癌发生发展中的作用,做好三级预防,努力减少健康损失.
Trends in disease burden of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia and prediction of neural network model in Chinese females,1990-2019
Objective To analyze the disease burden of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia and its changing trends in Chinese female population from 1990 to 2019,and to correspondingly predict its status during 2020-2029.Methods Using the data released by Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019),we analyzed the disease burden of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia and its changing trends in Chinese women from 1990 to 2019 via dimensions like morbidity,death and disability adjusted life years(DALY),compared it with that of the global population and predicted the incidence and death trend of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia in Chinese women during 2020-2029.Results The numbers of cases,death cases and DALY of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia in Chinese females in 2019 were 2,751,1,758,and 44,615 person-years respectively,with an increase of 352.5％,356.6％and 329.0％respectively compared with those in 1990,and the growth rates were all higher than the global levels(189.7％,184.2％and 180.9％respectively).The age-standardized incidence,mortality and DALY rates in 2019 were 0.270/100,000,0.164/100,000 and 4.103/100,000 respectively,and the average annual percentage changes were 2.3％,2.0％and 2.0％respectively,which were all higher than the global averages(1.3％,1.1％and 1.1％respectively).The disease burden of ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia remained relatively low between the ages of 25-44 years,but rapidly increased after the age of 45 years,reaching its peak between 55 and 74 years old.The prediction of neural network model showed that the incidence and death of the disease would remain high and rising in the next 10 years.Conclusion The disease burden caused by ovarian cancer attributable to hyperglycemia in Chinese females in 1990-2019 accounted for a large proportion globally,and the age-standardized incidence,mortality and DALY rates increased year by year.We should continue to pay attention to the role of metabolic factors like hyperglycemia in the occurrence and development of ovarian cancer,do a good job in tertiary prevention,and strive to reduce health losses.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
