Prediction and analysis of trend in the incidence of varicella in Urumqi based on ARIMA modeling
Objective To establish a seasonal time series model and select the best autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to predict the trend in chickenpox incidence in Urumqi City in 2023,to analyze the predictive effect of the model,and to provide a basis for chickenpox prevention and control.Methods Information on varicella incidence in Urumqi City from 2013 to 2022 was obtained from the China Information System for Disease Prevention and Control,and then Microsoft Excel 2021 and SPSS 23.0 software were used for analysis.A seasonal ARIMA model was established to predict the trend in varicella incidence in Urumqi City in 2023.Results A total of 27,342 cases of varicella were reported in Urumqi City from 2013 to 2021,with no deaths and an average annual reported incidence rate of 85.03/100,000.The best prediction model for the number of monthly chickenpox cases in Urumqi City was the ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model.Smooth R2 was 0.462,Bayesian information criterion(BIC)8.146,and the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)between the fitted and true values 23.101,with the good fitting effect.Conclusion The ARIMA(1,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model can better fit the trend in chickenpox incidence in Urumqi City,and it has some guiding significance for the development of preventive and control measures for chickenpox epidemic in Urumqi City.
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