Objective To analyze the trend of operational efficiency changes of diagnosis related groups(DRG)in a tertiary hospital from January 2019 to June 2023 and make predictions,providing reliable reference for hospital DRG management.Methods Using the time consumption index and cost consumption index data of a tertiary hospital from January 2019 to June 2023,ARIMA and GM(1,1)models were constructed,and the fitting effect was evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean square error(RMSE).Based on the dominance model,the time consumption index and cost consumption index for July December 2023 were predicted.Results The time consumption index was predicted using ARIMA(1,1,1)and GM(1,1)models,with average absolute errors of 0.036 7 and 0.077 6,and root mean square errors of 0.056 8 and 0.087 7,respectively;The ARIMA(0,1,1)and GM(1,1)models were used to predict the cost consumption index,with average absolute errors of 0.021 7 and 0.031 0,and root mean square errors of 0.034 6 and 0.041 0,respectively,indicating that the ARIMA model has better predictive performance.The prediction results show that the predicted time consumption index for December 2023 is 1.215 7,and the predicted cost consumption index is 0.628 8.Conclusion The operational efficiency of a tertiary hospital showed an overall upward trend from 2019 to 2023.Hospitals need to establish a continuous monitoring mechanism,comprehensively grasp the operation of DRG,assist hospitals in formulating more targeted strategies and policies to meet the needs of patients and doctors,and promote high-quality development of the hospital.
关键词
疾病诊断相关分组/时间消耗指数/费用消耗指数/预测研究
Key words
Diagnosis related groups/Time consumption index/Cost consumption index/Predictive research
维普
万方数据