目的 基于双重稳健估计(Doubly robust,DR)方法估计非小细胞肺癌治疗过程对院内死亡的因果效应大小,为降低非小细胞肺癌院内死亡率提供参考依据.方法 依据非小细胞肺癌治疗质量评价体系,计算治疗过程指标的使用率,以治疗过程质量均值得分为界限将患者划分为高质量组与低质量组.以院内死亡为结局指标,采用倾向性评分逆概率加权(Inverse probability of treatment weighting,IPTW)法校正的Kaplan-Meier法及Cox回归,分析治疗过程质量对非小细胞肺癌院内死亡的影响;结合DR估计治疗过程对院内死亡的因果效应大小.结果 治疗过程指标使用率的中位数为 66.88%,患者治疗过程质量得分为 0.270±0.124,其中高质量组为 0.358±0.069,低质量组为 0.158±0.081.经过IPTW法加权后,患者基线特征标准化平均差(Standardized mean difference,SMD)减小;IPTW前后两组患者生存曲线间差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05),高质量组患者的预后优于低质量组患者(IPTW前:HR=0.367,95%CI:0.275～0.491;IPTW后:HR=0.228,95%CI:0.167～0.312).与低质量组相比,高质量组患者治疗过程对院内死亡的平均因果效应大小为-0.026.结论 DR可弥补lo-gistic或IPTW的不足,规避模型出错的风险,可以获得治疗过程质量对院内死亡的因果效应.医疗实践中应提高治疗过程指标的使用率,从而改善患者预后;因果效应研究提示,除治疗过程外,影响院内死亡的其他因素也是不可忽略的.
Research on the causal effects of non-small cell lung cancer treatment process on in-hospital mortality based on double ro-bust estimation method
Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the causal effects of non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)treat-ment process on in-hospital mortality based on the double robust estimation(DR)method,and provide a reference basis for reducing in-hospital mortality of NSCLC.Methods According to the quality evaluation system of NSCLC treatment,the utilization rate of treatment process indicators was calculated,and patients were divided into the high-quality or low-quality groups based on the aver-age score of treatment process quality.In-hospital mortality was used as the outcome indicator,Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regres-sion adjusted for propensity score inverse probability of treatment weighting(IPTW)correction were used to analyze the impact of treat-ment process quality on in-hospital mortality in NSCLC.DR was combined to estimate the causal effects of the treatment process on in-hospital mortality.Results The median utilization rate of treatment process indicators was 66.88%,and the mean and standard de-viation of patients′ treatment process quality scores were 0.270±0.124,including 0.358±0.069 in the high-quality group,and 0.158±0.081 in the low-quality group.After the IPTW weighting,the standardized mean difference(SMD)of patients′baseline characteris-tics decreased;The difference in survival curves between the two groups of patients before and after ITPW was statistically significant(P<0.05),and the prognosis of patients in the high-quality group was better than that of patients in the low-quality group(pre-IPTW:HR=0.367,95%CI:0.275-0.491;post-IPTW:HR=0.228,95%CI:0.167-0.312).Compared with the low-quality group,the average causal effect of treatment process on in-hospital mortality was-0.026 in the high-quality group.Conclusion DR can compensate for the shortcomings of logistic or IPTW,avoid the risk of model error,and obtain for the causal effect of treatment process on in-hospital mortality.In medical practice,the utilization rate of treatment process indicators should be increased to improve patient prognosis;The study of causal effects suggests that besides the treatment process,other factors that affect in-hospital mortality cannot be ignored.
Non-small cell lung cancerPropensity scoreInverse probability of treatment weightingDoubly robust estima-tionTreatment quality
万方数据
维普
