Simulation of dynamic changes of potential vegetation in Laohahe Basin under scenario of climate change
Based on the physiographical features of the Laohahe Basin,the bioclimatic parameters of the LPJ model were modified.The spatial distribution of potential vegetation in the base year computed by the modified LPJ model was in agreement with the land cover data obtained through interpreting TM remote sensing information in the Laohahe Basin in 2000,indicating that the modified LPJ model can better simulate the spatial distribution of potential vegetation in the Laohahe Basin.The LPJ model was used for simulation of the response of potential vegetation to climate change under results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) B2.The results show that forestland area will increase greatly,and tend to move northward and eastward during the period from 2071 to 2100,while herbaceous vegetation coverage will decrease.The mean monthly values of the leaf area index (LAI) will be higher than those in the base year except for summers of the 2020s.Under the scenario of future climate change,the spatial pattern of net primary productivity (NPP) decreasing from the south to the north will show less change.However,the total NPP will gradually increase,with a significant increase in the south.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
