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珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件风险传递规律

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原文链接
  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
为研究珠江三角洲河网区极端水位事件的风险传递规律，基于13 个水位站点1957-2016 年的月水位资料，利用pair-copula结构构建珠三角河网区水位的风险传递模型，分析不同情景下极端水位在空间上的风险传递机制及其时间变化规律。结果表明:在低降水量条件下，珠三角河网区低水位风险顺向(上游至下游)和逆向(下游至上游)传递的概率均显著增大;高降水量条件下夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险更高，低降水量条件下冬季枯水期的低水位顺向和逆向传递风险均较高;受人类活动影响，在高降水量条件下，1987-2016 年夏季丰水期的高水位顺向传递风险比1957-1986 年显著增强;在低降水量条件下，1987-2016 年冬季枯水期低水位的顺向和逆向传递风险比1957-1986 年显著增强。
Risk transfer law of extreme water level events in river network area of the Pearl River Delta
In order to study the risk transfer law of extreme water level events in the river network area of the Pearl River Delta,based on the monthly water level data of 13 water level stations from 1957 to 2016,a risk transfer model of water level in the river network area of the Pearl River Delta was constructed using the pair-copula structure,and the risk transfer mechanism in space and the temporal variation law of extreme water level under different scenarios were analyzed.The results show that under low precipitation conditions,the probability of both forward(upstream to downstream)and backward(downstream to upstream)transfer of low water level risk in the river network area of the Pearl River Delta significantly increases.Under high precipitation conditions,the risk of forward and backward transfer of high water levels during the summer flood season is higher,while under low precipitation conditions,the risk of forward and backward transfer of low water levels during the winter dry season is higher.Affected by human activities,under high precipitation conditions,the risk of forward transfer of high water levels during the summer flood season of 1987-2016 was significantly increased compared to 1957-1986.Under low precipitation conditions,the risk of forward and backward transfer of low water levels during the winter dry season of 1987-2016 was significantly increased compared to 1957-1986.

extreme water levelrisk transfer modelpair-copula structureriver network area of the Pearl River Delta

范敏韬、佘贞燕、余龙飞、陈晓宏、刘智勇

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中山大学土木工程学院水资源与环境研究中心,广东 广州 510275

南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),广东 珠海 519082

中山大学海洋工程与技术学院河口海岸研究所,广东 珠海 519082

极端水位 风险传递模型 pair-copula结构 珠江三角洲河网区

国家重点研发计划项目国家自然科学基金项目珠江人才计划团队项目广东省杰出青年基金项目

2021YFC3001000521790312019ZT08G0902023B1515020116

2024

10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.02.011

水资源保护
河海大学 中国水利学会环境水利研究会

水资源保护

CSTPCD北大核心EI
影响因子：0.827
ISSN：1004-6933
年,卷(期)：2024.40(2)
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