首页|基于再分析降水资料的青藏高原典型流域径流模拟分析

基于再分析降水资料的青藏高原典型流域径流模拟分析

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基于实测资料、中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集(CMFD)和ERA5-Land再分析降水资料,构建了青藏高原尼洋河更张站以上流域的可变下渗能力(VIC)模型,评估再分析降水资料和VIC模型在资料缺乏地区径流模拟中的适用性,并探究了 VIC模型分辨率对径流模拟结果的影响。结果表明:在资料严重缺乏地区,基于实测资料的VIC模型难以反映径流的实际情况,而采用再分析降水资料可以明显提升流域径流模拟精度;与基于CMFD再分析数据的VIC模型模拟结果相比,基于ERA5-Land再分析数据的模型径流模拟精度更高,月径流模拟结果的纳什效率系数达到0。76,表明ERA5-Land再分析降水资料和VIC模型在研究区具有较好的适用性,但模型对洪峰模拟结果的精度需要进一步提高;VIC模型径流模拟精度随着其分辨率的提高有所提升,当模型分辨率由10km提高到1km时,月径流模拟结果的纳什效率系数提高了 9。1%,相对误差减小了16。5%;较高分辨率的VIC模型对峰现时间、洪峰流量模拟更准确,但是难以模拟退水过程。
Runoff simulation analysis of typical watershed in Tibetan Plateau based on reanalysis precipitation data
A variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model was constructed for the Nyang River above Gengzhang Station on the Tibetan Plateau based on observed precipitation data and reanalysis precipitation data of China meteorological forcing dataset(CMFD)and ERA5-Land.The applicability of reanalysis data and the VIC model in runoff simulation in data-deficient areas was evaluated,and the influence of model resolution on runoff simulation results was explored.The results indicate that,the VIC model based on observations is difficult to reflect actual runoff in the area seriously lacking observations,while the use of reanalysis data can significantly improve the simulation accuracy.Runoff simulation with the VIC model based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data has a higher accuracy than that based on CMFD reanalysis data,achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.76 for monthly runoff simulation results.This demonstrates the suitability of ERA5-Land reanalysis data and the VIC model in runoff simulation in the study area.However,it is necessary to improve the accuracy of peak flow simulation of the VIC model.It is also demonstrated that the runoff simulation accuracy of the VIC model is improved with the increase of model resolution.When the VIC model resolution is increased from 10 km to 1 km,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient for monthly runoff simulation results is increased by 9.1%,and the relative error is decreased by 16.5%.The VIC model with higher resolution is more accurate to simulate the peak appearance time and peak flow,but it is difficult to simulate backwater processes.

runoff simulationVIC modelCMFDERA5-LandTibetan Plateau

徐华亭、吴志勇、陈瑞方、孙昭敏、代斌、张瀚文、吴晓韬

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上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海 200335

河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京 210098

河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京 210098

径流模拟 VIC模型 CMFD ERA5-Land 青藏高原

上海勘测设计研究院有限公司科标业项目上海勘测设计研究院有限公司科标业项目国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目

2022QT831-0062021SL8-014U2240225

2024

水资源保护
河海大学 中国水利学会环境水利研究会

水资源保护

CSTPCD北大核心EI
影响因子:0.827
ISSN:1004-6933
年,卷(期):2024.40(4)