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基于水情变化的河流生态流量阈值及多时间尺度保障率计算

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为加强河流生态流量阈值及保障率计算对天然水文情势变化的适应性,提出了基于水文集合分位数的生态流量计算方法。根据河流长序列实测径流数据,在年际和年内划分不同水文情景,基于生态流量水文集合的中位数和下四分位数确定年内汛期、非汛期生态流量阈值下限,以丰、平水年组的计算结果分别作为平、枯水年组的生态流量理想值,结合生态流量中长期和短期保障率,计算分析河流在不同时间尺度下的生态流量保障程度。抚河下游应用结果表明:综合水情变化的生态流量阈值和多时间尺度保障率分析方法能够更好地适应天然河流年际和年内水情变化,更准确识别河流水文健康状况;丰、平、枯水年组抚河下游年均生态流量阈值下限分别为156。49、90。43、29。54 m3/s;不同时间尺度下抚河下游生态流量的保障程度均较低,中长期保障率大于短期保障率,中长期和短期保障率分别为63。64%~93。11%、42。50%~91。85%。
River ecological flow threshold and multi-time scale guarantee rate calculation based on hydrological regime changes
An ecological flow calculation method based on quartiles of hydrological ensemble is proposed to enhance the adaptability of river ecological flow threshold and guarantee rate calculation to natural hydrological regime changes.Long series of measured runoff data of a river were classified inter-annually and intra-annually according to different hydrological scenarios,and the lower limits of ecological flow threshold for flood season and non-flood season in a year were determined based on the median and lower quartile of the ecological flow hydrological ensemble.The ecological flow calculation results in wet and normal hydrological years were taken as the ideal values of ecological flow in normal and dry hydrological years,respectively,and the guarantee degree of ecological flow in the river on different time scales was analyzed based on the ecological flow guarantee rate for the mid-long and short terms.A case study of the lower Fuhe River shows that the analytical method that integrates ecological flow thresholds and multi-scale guarantee rates,is more adaptable to inter-annual and intra-annual changes in hydrological regime in natural rivers,and it can identify the hydrological health status of rivers more accurately.The average lower limits of ecological flow threshold of the lower Fuhe River were 156.49,90.43,and 29.54m3/s in wet,normal,and dry hydrological years,respectively.The guarantee degree of ecological flow in the lower Fuhe River was low on different time scales,and the ecological flow guarantee rate of mid-long term is higher than that of short term,with values ranging from 63.64%to 93.11%and 42.50%to 91.85%,respectively.

ecological flowthresholdecological flow guarantee ratehydrological regimelower Fuhe River

陈雪、徐富刚、李琴、肖睿、谢亨旺、邓海龙、贾卓

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南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌 330038

江西省科学院能源研究所,江西南昌 330096

江西省灌溉试验中心站,江西南昌 330201

生态流量 阈值 生态流量保障率 水文情势 抚河下游

国家自然科学基金项目江西省水利厅重大科技项目江西省自然科学基金项目

42202278202224ZDKT2420232BAB213080

2024

水资源保护
河海大学 中国水利学会环境水利研究会

水资源保护

CSTPCD北大核心EI
影响因子:0.827
ISSN:1004-6933
年,卷(期):2024.40(4)