Water resources carrying capacity evaluation in the Shiyang River Basin based on theories of water metabolism and water cycle
A water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system consisting of five subsystems,including input,consumption,vitality,regulation,and output,was constructed based on the theories of water metabolism and water cycle.The weights of different indicators were determined using the least squares method,together with the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,and the water resources carrying capacity of the Shiyang River Basin was comprehensively evaluated using the variable fuzzy set model.The Gaussian mixture regression model was coupled with three interpretable machine learning methods to quantify the impact of each evaluation indicator on the water resources carrying capacity,and explore their relationships on both global and local scales.The results indicate that from 2011 to 2020,the water resources carrying capacity of the river basin showed an improving trend with fluctuation,but it was still on the verge of overload.The score of water resources carrying capacity increased from 3.79 in 2011 to 4.18 in 2013,and then decreased to 3.23 in 2020.The Gaussian mixture regression model performed well in handling high-dimensional and small-sample water resources carrying capacity indicator data.Indicators,including per-unit water consumption for agricultural irrigation,reuse rate of sewage treatment,water consumption rate of ecological environment,water resources development and utilization rate,water production modulus,and groundwater exploitation rate are the dominant factors restricting the water resource carrying capacity of the river basin.From a global perspective,there was a non-linear relationship between water resources carrying capacity and the dominant factors,and water resources carrying capacity changed non-monotonically with those indicators.From a local perspective,the dominant factors tended to inhibit water resource carrying capacity from 2011 to 2015,while they gradually shifted to promotion factors from 2016 to 2020.Although the water resource carrying capacity in the river basin has been improved,it is necessary to strengthen the management in water resources development and utilization and reduce groundwater extraction rate in future.
water resources carrying capacityvariable fuzzy setGaussian mixture regression modeltheories of water metabolism and water cycleShiyang River Basin
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