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气候变化下基于经济损失量化的北京市内涝韧性评估

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针对未来不同气候情景与降雨重现期,基于InfoWorks ICM城市内涝模型,耦合内涝经济损失核算,刻画了北京市系统性能曲线。考虑内涝韧性的抵抗力、适应力和恢复力,建立了北京市内涝韧性动态评估体系,定量评估了未来气候变化对北京市内涝韧性的影响。结果表明:SSP2-4。5、SSP3-7。0和SSP5-8。5 3种气候变化情景与降雨重现期分别为5、20、50、100a的组合情景下,北京市的内涝韧性水平较高;不同土地利用类型中工业区韧性水平最高,居住区韧性水平最低,北京市内环内涝韧性水平明显低于外环。
Assessment of waterlogging resilience in Beijing based on quantification of economic losses under climate change
Based on the InfoWorks ICM urban waterlogging model and coupled with the economic loss calculation of waterlogging,the system performance curve of Beijing was characterized under different climate scenarios in the future and rainfall recurrence periods.A dynamic assessment system for waterlogging resilience in Beijing was established,taking into account the resistance,adaptability,and resilience of waterlogging.The impact of future climate change on waterlogging resilience in Beijing was quantitatively evaluated.The results show that under the combination scenarios of SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 climate change and rainfall recurrence periods of 5,20,50,and 100 a,respectively,Beijing has a higher level of waterlogging resilience.Among different land use types,industrial areas have the highest resilience level,while residential areas have the lowest resilience level.The waterlogging resilience level of Beijing inner ring area is significantly lower than that of the outer ring area.

urban waterlogging resiliencesystem performance curvequantification of economic lossesInfoWorks ICM modelclimate change scenarioBeijing City

邹家祥、段存存、陈彬、王昊

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北京师范大学环境学院,北京 100875

北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京 100875

北京工业大学城市建筑工程学院,北京 100124

城市内涝韧性 系统性能曲线 经济损失量化 InfoWorks ICM模型 气候变化情景 北京市

2024

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河海大学 中国水利学会环境水利研究会

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CSTPCD北大核心EI
影响因子:0.827
ISSN:1004-6933
年,卷(期):2024.40(6)