With the purpose of improving the efficiency of resource allocation and utilization of high speed railway EMUs,a method for predicting the demand for high-speed railway EMUs is studied.Considering the features of high speed railway EMU opera-tion,a comprehensive analysis is carried out on the internal and external factors influencing the high-speed railway EMU demand,which includes population,GDP,high speed railway operating mileage as well at train operation plan.Then a high-speed railway EMU demand prediction model based on a combination model is built.The prediction model is validated with historical data by predicting the short-term and long-term demand for high speed railway EMUs.The prediction results indicate that the average absolute error is at 3.56％,showing a high prediction accuracy,which verifies the effectiveness and credibility of the model.
关键词
高速铁路/动车组/需求量/预测方法/重力模型/组合模型
Key words
high speed railway/EMU/demand quantity/prediction method/gravity model/combination model
维普
万方数据