"双碳"背景下铁路行业碳排放量预测与交易研究
Carbon Emission Prediction and Trading in the Railway Industry under the Background of"Dual Carbon"Policy
陶然 1高子淇 2龙非凡 3陈东杰4
作者信息
- 1. 中国铁路设计集团有限公司建筑院,天津 300308
- 2. 天津大学未来技术学院,天津 300072
- 3. 天津大学建筑学院,天津 300072
- 4. 中国铁路经济规划研究院有限公司,北京 100038
- 折叠
摘要
随着全球对气候变化问题日益关注,在碳达峰与碳中和"双碳"政策背景下,铁路行业作为交通运输领域的重要组成部分,其碳排放量预测与交易对于推动交通运输绿色转型、助力实现"双碳"目标至关重要.基于对数正态分布模型,将国家"双碳"目标作为约束条件,提出铁路行业碳排放预测方法.结合历史碳排放数据,利用遗传算法优化对数正态分布参数,提高碳排放预测拟合效果和模型预测精度.在此基础上,分析铁路行业纳入碳交易市场的时机与挑战,提出"双碳"背景下铁路行业入市发展对策:推动技术创新,优化内部机制,争取政策支持,参与市场策略,强化人才队伍.通过有效、精准地预测行业碳排放量,确保各行业碳排放配额的准确分配,为铁路行业在"双碳"背景下进入碳交易市场实现绿色低碳转型提供理论与实践指导.
Abstract
Climate change has attracted increasingly global attention.Under the background of the"dual carbon"policy,namely,carbon peak and carbon neutrality,predicting and trading of carbon emissions of the railway industry,as an important com-ponent of the transportation sector,plays a crucial role in promoting the green transformation of transportation and help achieve the"dual carbon"goals.Based on the log normal distribution model,a method for predicting railway industry's carbon emissions is pro-posed with the national"dual carbon"target as a constraint.Combining historical carbon emission data,the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the log normal distribution parameters and to improve the fitting effect and model prediction accuracy of carbon emis-sion prediction.On this basis,this paper analyzes the timing and challenges of the railway industry's inclusion in the carbon trading market,and proposes development strategies for the railway industry's entry into the market under the background of"dual carbon":promoting technological innovation,optimizing internal mechanisms,seeking policy support,participating in market strategies,and strengthening the talent team.By effectively and accurately predicting railway industry's carbon emissions,ensuring the accurate al-location of carbon emission quotas for various industries,and thus the theoretical and practical guidance is provided for the railway industry to enter the carbon trading market and achieve green and low-carbon transformation under the background of"dual carbon".
关键词
"双碳"目标/碳排放预测/对数正态分布拟合/碳交易市场/入市时机/入市发展对策/碳排放配额Key words
"dual carbon"target/carbon emission prediction/Log normal distribution fitting/carbon trading market/market entry timing/development strategies for entering the market/carbon emission quota引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据