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山区既有线降雨预警曲面研究

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对某山区既有线路基边坡溜坍风险点的地形特征以及降雨特征展开调研,得到该线路路堑边坡典型参数;基于提高多种致灾降雨类型条件下的预警成功率现实要求,提出以有效累积降雨量、时激发降雨量、降雨历时作为降雨预警空间建立降雨预警曲面;运用2012-2019年降雨数据统计分析确定了适用于该线路溜坍病害的降雨预警曲面参数,对比分析了相同区段内降雨预警曲面与传统I-D降雨预警曲线的预警效果,并采用2020年降雨数据对该降雨预警曲面进行了验证.结果表明:应用降雨预警曲面可对山区既有铁路溜坍病害进行有效预警,预警成功率达到90%.
Study on Rainfall Warning Surface in Certain Existing Railway in Mountainous Areas
A survey was conducted on the terrain,landforms,and rainfall characteristics of certain existing railway in mountainous areas,and typical parameters of the cutting slope of were obtained.Based on the practical requirements of improving the success rate of early warning under various disaster causing rainfall types,a rainfall warning surface was established using effective cumulative rainfall,hourly triggered rainfall,and rainfall duration as the rainfall warning space.Using statistical analysis of rainfall data of 2012~2019 years,the parameters of the rainfall warning surface suitable for the collapse disease were determined.The warning effect of the rainfall warning surface in the same section was compared and analyzed with the traditional I-D rainfall warning curve.The 2020 year rainfall data was used to verify the warning surface.The results show that the rainfall warning curve can effectively warn of railway collapse diseases on existing railway lines in mountainous areas,with a success rate of 90%.

railway in nountainous arearainfallshallow slope collapserainfall warning curvesstatistical analysis

刘振宇、赵有明、张新冈、马鹏、李泰灃、张千里

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中国铁道科学研究院 研究生部,北京 100081

中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司,北京 100081

中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司 铁道建筑研究所,北京 100081

高速铁路轨道系统国家重点实验室,北京 100081

中国铁路上海局集团有限公司 合肥高铁基础设施段,合肥 230011

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山区铁路 降雨 浅层溜坍 降雨预警曲面 统计分析

国家重点研发计划中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研发计划中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司项目中国铁路太原局集团有限公司科技研发计划

2022YFB2603400P2021G0532021YJ0722022G03

2024

铁道建筑
中国铁道科学研究院

铁道建筑

北大核心
影响因子:0.623
ISSN:1003-1995
年,卷(期):2024.64(4)
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