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风险演化研究综述及其在轨道交通领域的应用与探讨

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风险内涵分析及风险演化机制是目前风险管理研究领域的热点问题.研究首先采用文献计量法与内容分析法,构建国内外风险演化研究的共现网络图,全面剖析了风险演化领域的研究特征、热点主题分布,发现风险演化主要围绕基于图论的风险分析与安全评估、基于系统论的风险评估、基于机器学习的风险预测与失效分析以及基于仿真与建模技术的风险传播与故障分析4个热点主题开展.其次,构建了风险管理框架,系统性分析并提出了风险演化方法体系.从系统论、因果逻辑、图论、建模仿真以及机器学习5方面详细阐述了风险演化研究方法.最后,研究剖析了轨道交通领域现阶段风险演化存在的问题与挑战,探究了未来研究趋势.研究可为安全生产中的风险防控理论体系构建及技术应用实践提供学术参考.
Review of Risk Evolution Research and Its Application and Discussion in Rail Transit
Risk connotation analysis and risk evolution mechanism are currently hot issues in risk management research.In this study,the bibliometric method and content analysis were adopted to construct a co-occurrence network diagram of risk evolution at home and abroad,and the research characteristics and distribution of hot topics in risk evolution were comprehensively analyzed.The result shows that risk evolution mainly focused on four hot topics:risk analysis and safety assessment based on graph theory,risk assessment based on system theory,risk prediction and failure analysis based on machine learning,and risk transmission and fault analysis based on simulation and modeling.The risk management framework was constructed,and the risk evolution methodology was systematically analyzed and proposed.The risk evolution research method was elaborated from five aspects:system theory,causal logic,graph theory,modeling and simulation,and machine learning.Finally,the problems and challenges of the current risk evolution in rail transit were analyzed,and the future research trend was explored.The study can provide an academic reference for the construction of risk prevention and control theory systems and technology application practice in safety production.

Risk EvolutionRail TransitDynamic RiskGraph TheorySystem TheoryMachine LearningSimulation and Modeling

李曼、刘贵源、王艳辉、贾利民、郭湛、张坤

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北京交通大学 交通运输学院,北京 100044

中国国家铁路集团有限公司 铁路安全研究中心,北京 100081

风险演化 轨道交通 动态风险 图论 系统论 机器学习 仿真建模

2025

铁道运输与经济
中国铁道科学研究院

铁道运输与经济

北大核心
影响因子:0.924
ISSN:1003-1421
年,卷(期):2025.47(1)