首页|基于全生命周期的轨道交通产业集群供应链碳排放测算与影响因素分析

基于全生命周期的轨道交通产业集群供应链碳排放测算与影响因素分析

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在"碳达峰"和"碳中和"的背景下,根据全生命周期理论,对轨道交通产业集群供应链全生命周期碳排放的边界进行界定,将轨道交通产业全生命周期划分为上中下游3个阶段.在此基础上,计算出四川省轨道交通产业集群供应链在2020年产生的碳排放总量为1 149.63万t·CO2,引入Kaya等式,综合考虑碳排放强度、能源结构、能源强度等影响因素,使用LMDI分解法处理四川省轨道交通产业集群供应链2010-2020年的碳排放数据,结果表明:能源强度、经济产出和人口因素的影响大多为正效应,能源结构和产业结构大多为负效应且是最大的影响因素.从优化能源结构和能源强度、调整产业结构、建立碳排放监测与评估机制3个方面为助力轨道交通产业集群供应链的低碳转型提供对策建议.
Carbon Emission Estimation and Influencing Factors Analysis of Supply Chain of Rail Transit Industry Clusters Based on Life Cycle
Against the backdrop of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,the boundary of the carbon emissions throughout the life cycle of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters was defined based on the life cycle theory,and the life cycle of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters was divided into upstream,midstream,and downstream stages.On this basis,the total CO2 emissions of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters in Sichuan Province in 2020 were calculated to be 11.496 3 million tons.The Kaya identity was introduced,and influencing factors such as carbon emission intensity,energy structure,and energy intensity were comprehensively considered.The LMDI decomposition method was used to process the carbon emission data of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2020.The results show that energy intensity,economic output,and population factors mostly have positive effects on total carbon emission,and energy intensity and industrial structure mostly have negative effects and are the biggest influencing factors.Therefore,the paper provides countermeasures and suggestions for supporting the low-carbon transition of the supply chain of rail transit industry clusters from three aspects:optimizing the energy structure and energy intensity,adjusting the industrial structure,and establishing a carbon emission monitoring and evaluation mechanism.

Rail Transit IndustrySupply Chain of ClusterLife CycleCarbon Emission EstimationLMDI

杨颖、梁洁林、李佳霖、薛锋

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西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 611756

西南交通大学 综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川 成都 611756

轨道交通产业 集群供应链 全生命周期 碳排放测算 LMDI分解法

2025

铁道运输与经济
中国铁道科学研究院

铁道运输与经济

北大核心
影响因子:0.924
ISSN:1003-1421
年,卷(期):2025.47(1)