Route Optimization of Multimodal Transport Considering Demand Uncertainty under Carbon Trading Mechanism
To promote the cost reduction and carbon mitigation and clarify the influence of the mechanism and uncertain demand on the choice of multimodal transport routes,this study constructed an uncertain chance-constrained programming model,which was transformed into a deterministic model based on the uncertainty theory and solved by a genetic algorithm incorporating the immigration mechanism,for the route optimization of multimodal transport considering freight uncertainty under carbon trading mechanism.Comprehensive influences of carbon quotas,allocation methods,carbon trading prices and uncertain demand on multimodal transport schemes,cost structure and carbon emission of freight enterprises were analyzed through numerical examples.Results show that the carbon trading mechanism effectively guides freight enterprises to adopt low-carbon options,reducing emissions by 18.4%.In scenarios featuring low-cost balanced quotas,including free allocation and mixed allocations of 80%and 90%,as well as high quota scenarios,enterprises can simultaneously reduce emissions and costs,achieving economic and environmental benefits.Under uncertain freight volumes,enterprises prefer stable and low-carbon options like rail or rail-water intermodal,and will increase investments to manage risks.
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