Objective:To understand the epidemiological trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality among the Chinese population,evaluate the impact of different ages,periods,and birth cohorts on the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality,and to predict the incidences and mortality of liver cancer in China from 2020 to 2034.Methods:Using the Global Burden of Disease database,data on liver cancer incidence and mortality among different gender groups in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained.This study describes the temporal trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality rates,and estimates the age,period,and cohort effects on liver cancer incidence and mortality using the Age-Period-Cohort model and intrinsic estimator method.The NORDPRED Age-Period-Cohort model is employed to fit the trends of liver cancer incidence and mortality,and to predict the incidence and mortality of liver cancer from 2020 to 2034.Results:From 1990 to 2019,the number of liver cancer cases,the incidence rate and standardized incidence rate,the number of liver cancer deaths,the mortality rate,the standardized mortality rate,in China all initially declining then rising.The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer in China first decreased,then increased,and then decreased again with age.Period effect results indicated that the risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality in China decreased year by year from 1990 to 2014,with a slight upward trend from 2015 to 2019.Cohort effect results showed that the risk of incidence and mortality for the entire population and females presented a significant declining trend with the development of birth cohorts.For males,the risk of incidence and mortality increased for those born between 1895-1909 and then showed a decreasing trend from 1910 onwards.The standardized incidence rate of liver cancer in China from 2020 to 2034 is expected to decline.Conclusion:The risk of liver cancer incidence and mortality among Chinese men and women is influenced to varying degrees by age effects,period effects,and cohort effects.Continuously improving liver cancer screening,diagnosis,and treatment is the fundamental approach to reducing the incidence and mortality of liver cancer in China.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
