2017-2022年东海县牛山街道疑似预防接种异常反应监测分析及预测
Surveillance and prediction of suspected abnormal reactions to vaccination in Niushan Street,Donghai County from 2017 to 2022
郭珍 1陈莉1
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省扬州市广陵区疾病预防控制中心 慢性传染病防制科,江苏 扬州 225002;江苏省连云港市东海县牛山街道卫生院 预防保健科,江苏 东海 222300
- 折叠
摘要
目的:分析及预测东海县牛山街道2017 年至2022 年疑似预防接种异常反应(AEFI)的发生情况,为疫苗的安全使用提供依据.方法:采用描述性流行病学方法对东海县牛山街道2017 年至2022 年AEFI资料进行统计分析.使用R 3.6.2 软件,利用2017 年1 月至2022 年4 月AEFI发生例数构建季节性差分自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA),并通过2022 年5～12 月AEFI发生例数验证模型性能.结果:2017 年至2022 年牛山街道共接种各类疫苗313 038 剂次,其中免疫规划疫苗284 815 剂次,非免疫规划疫苗28 223 剂次.不同年份AEFI报告发生率差异有统计学意义(χ2 =27.837,P =0.001).AEFI有 280 例,其中 262 例为一般反应,18 例为异常反应;280 例未住院,均痊愈.SARIMA模型对东海县牛山街道AEFI发生例数进行了较好的拟合,最终模型参数为SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12,AIC值为300.39,BIC值为310.05,预测值与真实值的均方根误差(RMSE)为5.03,提示该模型预测结果可信.结论:AEFI监测数据显示目前使用的免疫规划疫苗和非免疫规划疫苗是安全的,建立的SARIMA模型可预测牛山街道AEFI的发生趋势及走向.
Abstract
Objective:To analyze and predict the incidence of adverse reactions following immunization(AEFI)to vaccination in Niushan Street,Donghai County from 2017 to 2022,and to provide a basis for the safe use of vaccines.Methods:Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the AEFI data of Niushan Street in Donghai County from 2017 to 2022 by R 3.6.2 software.A seasonal difference autoregressive moving average model(SARIMA)was constructed based on the number of AEFI from January 2017 to April 2022,and the performance of the model was validated through the number of AEFI from May to December 2022.Results:From 2017 to 2022,a total of 313 038 doses of various vaccines were administered in Niushan Street,including 284 815 doses of expanded program on immunization vaccines and 28 223 doses of non-immunization expanded program vaccines.There was a statistically significant difference in the incidence rate of AEFI reports among different years(χ2 =27.837,P =0.001).There were280 cases of AEFI,in which262 cases were mild reactions,18 cases were abnormal reactions,and 280 cases were not hospitalized,all of which were cured.The SARIMA model fitted well to the number of AEFI cases in Niushan Street in Donghai County,the final model parameters were SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12,with AIC value of 300.39 and BIC value of 310.05,the root mean square error(RMSE)between the predicted and true values was 5.03,indicating the reliability of the model's prediction results.Conclusion:AEFI monitoring data shows that the currently used immunization planning vaccines and non-immunization planning vaccines are safe.The SARIMA model established can predict the incidence trend and drection of AEFI in Niushan Street.
关键词
预防接种/描述性流行病学/监测分析/时间序列模型Key words
immunization/descriptive epidemiology/monitoring analysis/time series model引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据