Objective:To explore the relationship between lipid accumulation product(LAP)and the risk of diabetes in middle-aged and elderly people,and to analyze the predictive value of different obesity evaluation indicators such as LAP on the risk of diabetes.Methods:The research data comes from the baseline data of the comprehensive prevention and control project of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Jiangsu Province.109 735 patients with new-onset diabetes who participated in the survey from May 2021 to May 2023 were used as research subjects,and questionnaire surveys,physical examinations and laboratory tests were conducted.The χ2 test was used to analyze the data,and a Logistic regression model was established to explore the impact of LAP on the risk of diabetes.Meanwhile,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to calculate the area under the curve(AUC)to evaluate the predictive effect of LAP on the risk of diabetes.The used software was SPSS 23.0.Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that in the total population,taking the LAP Q1 group as a reference,the risk of new-onset diabetes in the LAP Q2,Q3 and Q4 groups gradually increased,with OR of 1.643(95%CI 1.494~1.806)and 2.624(95%CI 2.401~2.866),5.034(95%CI 4.633~5.471),the differences are statistically significant(P<0.01).ROC curve analysis showed that in the total population,the AUC of LAP in predicting the risk of diabetes(0.680)was higher than those of body mass index(BMI),waist circumference(WC),waist-to-hip ratio(WHR)and waist-to-height ratio(WHtR)(P<0.01).The AUCs of LAP in predicting the risk of diabetes in different groups of men and women were 0.656 and 0.704 respectively,which were higher than those of BMI,WC,WHR and WHtR(P<0.01).Conclusion:LAP is a risk factor for the occurrence of diabetes and has a certain predictive effect on the occurrence of diabetes,and its predictive effect is better than traditional obesity indicators such as BMI,WC,WHR and WHtR.In addition,LAP has a higher diagnostic value for diabetes in women than in men.