Objective:To explore the risk factors of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with peptic ulcer,and to construct and validate a prediction model.Methods:Patients with peptic ulcer diagnosed by endoscopy in our department were retrospectively analyzed.The clinical data of the patients were collected and recorded.According to whether upper gastrointestinal bleeding occurred during hospitalization,the patients were divided into bleeding group(107 cases)and control group(371 cases).Logistic regression was used for risk factor analysis,and the prediction model was preliminarily constructed.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was used to verify the model.Results:Multivariate analysis showed that advanced age,Helicobacter pylori infection,use of antiplatelet and/or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs,bad living habits,high-risk Rockall score and mental stress were independent risk factors for upper gastrointestinal bleeding.The regression model based on the risk factors was Logit(p)=-8.320+0.586 × age+2.974 × use of antiplatelet/non-steroid anti-inflammatory drugs(no=0,yes=1)+1.678 × bad living habits(no=0,yes=1)+2.339 × Rockall score(low and moderate risk=0,high risk=1)+0.059 × HAMA score.ROC curve analysis showed that the model had good differentiation ability and consistency.Conclusion:Different from clinicians using endoscopic parameters for risk assessment and patients'stratification,the risk prediction model helps clinical nurses to make intuitive evaluation of high-risk patients and take corresponding nursing countermeasures,which is of certain value in preventing patients from upper gastrointestinal bleeding.
peptic ulcernon-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleedingrisk factorsprediction model
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万方数据
