首页|自然灾害综合危险性评估方法研究——以深圳市为例

自然灾害综合危险性评估方法研究——以深圳市为例

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以深圳市为例,对比权重分析法、最高危险性评价法及聚类分析法 3 种综合危险性评价方法的优劣性和适用范围,结果表明:权重分析法操作方便灵活,但权重的取值存在主观性;最高危险性评价法能凸显区域内最危险的灾害类型,但需要各灾种的危险性评价为同一时空维度,且有统一的评判标准;聚类分析法对灾害影响进行自然空间分类,更适用于单灾种影响分区集中的地域.深圳地区主要影响灾种为台风和暴雨洪涝,地形因素导致地质灾害和暴雨洪涝影响范围分散,更适合使用最高危险性评价法.
Research on Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method for Natural Disasters:Taking Shenzhen City as an Example
Taking Shenzhen as an example,the paper analyzes the advantages,disadvantages,and applicability of three comprehensive risk assessment methods,which are weight analysis method,highest risk assessment method,and cluster analysis method.The results indicate that the weight analysis method is convenient and flexible to operate,but the value of weights is subjective.The highest risk assessment method can highlight the most dangerous types of disasters in the region,but it requires the risk assessment of each type of disaster to be the same spatiotemporal dimension and have a unified evaluation standard.Cluster analysis method for natural spatial classification of disaster impacts is more suitable for regions with concentrated single disaster impact zones.The main types of disasters in Shenzhen are typhoon and rainstorm flood.Topographic factors lead to the dispersion of geological disasters and rainstorm flood,which is more suitable using the highest risk assessment method.

multi-hazardscomprehensive riskhighest riskcluster analysis

赵娜、习树峰、焦圆圆、黄晶晶

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深圳市城市公共安全技术研究院有限公司 广东深圳 518000

多灾种 综合危险性 最高危险性 聚类分析

2024

天津科技
天津科学技术信息研究所

天津科技

影响因子:0.253
ISSN:1006-8945
年,卷(期):2024.51(6)