Trend of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Incidence in China from 1990 to 2019 and Projection for 2020 to 2030
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of type 2 diabetes mellitus and its causes in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2019,and to predict the trend of incidence from 2020 to 2030,so as to provide a reference for the pre-vention and treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China.Methods Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database.Joinpoint regression model was established to analyze trends in crude,age-standardized,and age-specific in-cidence rates.Bayesian-age-period-cohort model was established to predict incidences from 2020 to 2030.Results From 1990 to 2019,the crude incidence rates and age-standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the whole population,female subgroup,and male subgroup in China showed an increasing trend.The average annual percentage changes in crude incidence rates were 1.68％,1.65％,and 1.64％,respectively,while the standardized incidence rates exhibited average annual percentage changes of 0.44％,0.16％,and 0.67％,respectively.Age-specific incidence rates in the 15～44 age group all demonstrated an upward trend,with the 25～29 age group showing the fastest increase at an average annual percentage change of 1.63％.In the period from 2020 to 2030,the age-standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the whole population,females,and males in China are expected to decline.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the age-standardized and crude incidence rates of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China showed an overall increasing trend.The increasing trends of male subgroup and the younger age(15～44 years old)subgroup were more obvious.The standardized incidence rates of type 2 diabetes melltius in China are expected to decrease consistently in the future,with a more noticeable decline in females compared to males.
type 2 diabetes mellitusincidencejoinpoint regression modelBayesian-age-period-cohort model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
