Objective To explore the influencing factors of postpyloric feeding catheter outcomes in patients with severe acute pancreatitis(SAP),to construct a visual prediction model and validate the model.Methods 257 SAP patients admitted to the intensive care unit of the hospital from January 2020 to June 2023 were selected as the study subjects,they were divided into a success group and a failure group according to the success or failure of the spiral nasoenteric pyloric postfeeding catheter.The risk factors of catheter failure were analyzed by univariate and Logistic multivariate regression,and a visual risk profile prediction model was construct and validated by R4.2.1 software.Results There were 49 cases of catheter failure,the failure rate was 19.07％of the 257 patients.The results of Logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score,intraperitoneal pressure(1AP),mechanical ventilation,plasma albumin,use of gastrointestinal motility drugs,use of vasoactive drugs,and acute gastrointestinal injury(AGI)score were the factors influencing the failure of feeding the post-pylori feeding catheter in SAP patients(All P＜0.05).The AUC of the column chart prediction model modeling group and the validation group were 0.898 and 0.893,respectively;the calibration curves of the two groups approached the ideal curve;the column chart DCA curve showed that the net benefit of the model was high.Conclusion APACHE Ⅱscore,1AP,mechanical ventilation,plasma albumin,the use of gastrointestinal motility drugs,the use of vasoactive drugs,and the AGI score are independent influencing factors for the failure of feeding the catheter after the helical naso-intestinal pylorus in SAP patients,the visualized nematogram prediction model can predict the risk of failure of feeding the catheter after the helical naso-intestinal pylorus in SAP patients,with good differentiation,high consistency between the prediction probability and the actual probability,good prediction performance,good clinical benefits,and good clinical application value,etc.,which could help ICU nurses identify the risk factors of the catheter,provide individualized interventions for patients,and reduce the catheter failure rate.
Severe acute pancreatitisSpiral nasointestinal ductPost-pyloric feedingCatheterizationVisual prediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
