Establishment and application effect of psychological crisis risk prediction model for primary caregivers of adolescents with depression
Objective To construct a psychological crisis risk prediction model for primary caregivers of adolescent patients with depression and verify its prediction effect.Methods 102 primary caregivers of adolescent depression patients admitted to the hospital from January 2020 to June 2022 were selected to construct the training group,and 30 primary caregivers of adolescent depression patients admitted to the hospital from July to December 2022 were selected to be the validation group,they were investigated by using tools such as Crisis Intervention Categorical Assessment Scale.The influencing factors of psychological crisis among primary caregivers of adolescent patients with depression were screened by univariate factor and multifactorial Logistic regression model analysis,the risk prediction model of psychological crisis among primary caregivers of adolescent patients with depression was established to test the prediction effect.Results Scale evaluation showed that there were 71 patients in the low level group and 31 patients in the medium-high level group of the training set psychological crisis,and multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that the influencing factors of the main caregiver psychological crisis of adolescent depression patients were the duration of the patient's illness,the patient's self-injurious and suicidal behaviours,the caregiver's cultural level,the caregiver's psychological elasticity,the caregiver's apprehended social support,and the caregiver's medium-heavy burden(P<0.05).A model for predicting the risk of psychological crisis in primary caregivers of adolescents with depression was developed based on the results of regression analyses.The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 test(χ2=1.151,P=0.283)showed a good model fit.The area under the ROC curve predicted by the model was 0.812(95%CI:0.787～0.837),with an optimal cut-offvalue of 14.54%,and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.872 and 0.890,respectively.The results of the validation set prediction showed that the sensitivity and specificity of prediction were 0.600 and 0.850,respectively;and the Kappa=0.462,which had the clinical application value.Conclusion The psychological crisis risk prediction model for primary caregivers of adolescents with depression can provide a scientific and reliable basis for clinical regulation of the psychological status of primary caregivers of adolescents with depression,so as to maintain the psychological health of the caregivers.
AdolescentsDepressionPrimary caregiverPsychological crisisInfluencing factorsPrediction model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
