Constant Market Share Three-level Bipolar Homogenization Model and Its Application:Analysis on Driving Factors of China's Agricultural Export Growth to Countries along the"Belt and Road"and Their Contribution Rates
Constant Market Share Three-level Bipolar Homogenization Model and Its Application:Analysis on Driving Factors of China's Agricultural Export Growth to Countries along the"Belt and Road"and Their Contribution Rates
The constant market share(CMS)three-level bipolar homogenization model organically combines the micro-level commodity prices,quantities and types,the meso-level country and industrial structure,and the macro-level market share and demand scale,and systematically portrays the direct factors of export fluctuations.Based on this model,this paper analyzes the driving factors of China's agricultural export growth to countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2002 to 2021 and their contribution rates from four dimensions:overall,dynamic,regional and industrial.The results show that the import demand effect has contributed dominantly,both demand quantity and price contribute significantly;though the overall export competitiveness is not high,the type competitiveness and quality competitiveness both improve slightly.After the proposal of Belt and Road Initiative,the effect of export competitiveness has increased significantly;especially the effect of quantitative competitiveness has been greatly improved.The research also shows that the above-mentioned influencing factors have common features in different industries and regions,but also have a certain degree of difference.Therefore,compared with the traditional CMS two-level decomposition framework,the CMS three-level bipolar homogenization model has richer research conclusions,more accurate economic implications,more instructive policy implications and wider application value.
关键词
CMS模型/三元边际/国际竞争力/"一带一路"倡议/农产品
Key words
CMS Model/Temary Margin/International Competitiveness/Belt and Road Initiative/Agricultural Products
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