真实链位论与经济统计——前一轮全球化过程中国际竞争格局的一个分析框架
Real Chain Position Theory and Economic Statistics:An Analytical Framework for International Competition in the Previous Round of Globalization
罗良清 1邱东2
作者信息
- 1. 江西财经大学统计与数据科学学院;江西财经大学应用统计研究中心
- 2. 江西财经大学
- 折叠
摘要
国势判断是高质量发展不可或缺的认知基础.本文提出真实链位论作为深入考察国际竞争格局的一个分析框架,意在从定位角度集中揭示国际经济、社会、文化和政治交往的内在关系,强调人们往往容易忽略的现象本质.本文基于经济统计视角分析全球化链条中的真实链位,进而论述真实链位论的基本内容以及真实链位论与国势学认知的内在逻辑.本文主要结论如下.第一,认清中国在全球化链条中的真实链位及其对产业关联弹性、刚性、态势的影响意义重大;第二,成本效益分析应特别关注正面事物的隐性成本和长期成本;第三,要注意国家作为基本利益单位和测度单位的属性;第四,注重事实与见解的辨析,尤其警惕以事实名义出现的见解;第五,在全球化发展的大背景下重构国势学确有必要;第六,全球供应链并非自由竞争的市场经济,国内生产总值(GDP)并不适于新兴国家用来判断国势.
Abstract
Evaluate the national power is an indispensable cognitive foundation for high-quality development.As a reference framework for in-depth exploration of international competition pattern,Real Chain Position Theory presented in this paper concentrates on revealing the intrinsic relationship in international economic,social,cultural and political interactions from the perspective of positioning,and highlights the realities which is often overlooked.This paper analyzes the Real Chain Position in the globalization chain from the perspective of economic statistics,and then discusses the fundamental contents of the Real Chain Position Theory and the inherent logic for Real Chain Position Theory and Statustics.The conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,it is of great significance to recognize the real chain position of China in the globalization chain and its influence on the elasticity,rigidity and trend of industrial correlation.Secondly,cost-benefit analysis should pay special attention to the implicit and long-term costs of positive elements.Thirdly,the attributes of the state should be considered as the basic unit of interest and measurement.Fourthly,the distinguish between facts and opinions should be emphasized,particularly alert to opinions presented under the guise of facts.Fifthly,it is necessary to reconstruct the Statustics in the context of global development.Sixthly,the global supply chain is not a market economy with free competition,and GDP is not suitable for emerging countries to evaluate the national power.
关键词
真实链位论/经济统计/国势学Key words
Real Chain Position Theory/Economic Statistics/Statustics引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD125)
国家社会科学基金"加快构建中国特色哲学社会科学学科体系、学术体系、话语体系"研究专项项目(19VXK08)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据