Monitoring economic risks and identifying the evolution direction of economic risks are of great significance for China to achieve"stable growth"under the background of economic downward pressure.This paper uses the Markov regime transfer skew-normal distribution model to identify the structural change path of economic risks,and further,based on multidimensional perspectives such as driving structure decomposition,probability distribution moment,probability density function,and tail risk,effectively analyzes the early warning function of economic and financial conditions on economic risks.Research has found that,firstly,as the risk regime of economic growth probability distribution changes from low to high,the expected economic growth rate decreases,the fluctuation range expands,and the downside risk increases.Secondly,there is a significant structural turning point in economic risk in 2012.After the sudden change point,the skewness coefficient changes from positive to negative,and the economy enters a long-term downward risk channel.In addition,there are periodic inflection points in economic risks around 2019 and 2021,and the probability of economic upturn in the short term is relatively high.Thirdly,the dynamic evolution path of economic risks exhibits significant"event-driven"characteristics,and under extreme event shocks,economic downside risks increase.Finally,the early warning function of economic and financial conditions for economic risks has significant heterogeneity.Economic conditions cannot provide early warning information for economic risks,while financial conditions can sensitively identify and capture risk information for economic growth.During periods of high economic risk,the early warning function of financial conditions is more significant.
关键词
经济风险/实时监测/结构性拐点/预警信息/马尔科夫区制转移偏正态分布模型
Key words
Economic Risks/Real-time Monitoring/Structural Inflection Point/Early Warning Information/Markov Regime Transfer Skew-normal Distribution Model
维普
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